The structure of the economy will continue to evolve over time, with a carbon price supporting stronger growth in clean energy and low‑emission industries.
The structure of the Australian economy will continue to evolve and change, as it has over history.
Pricing carbon will have much less of an impact on production patterns than we are currently experiencing from the mining boom, and much less than we'd expect from technological advancement and demographic change.
In fact, industries comprising 99 per cent of Australia's output will continue to grow from now to 2050 under carbon pricing.
The share of the economy producing manufactured goods has fallen over a long period and this is expected to continue (with or without carbon pricing) as the mining and construction sectors draw resources from the rest of the economy.
This transformation is broadly unaffected by carbon pricing, although there are changes in the composition of the manufacturing sector towards lower emission activities.
Similarly, the services sector is broadly unaffected by carbon pricing and will continue to grow.
The agriculture sector, which is excluded from the carbon price, continues to grow and has an incentive to reduce emissions through the Carbon Farming Initiative.
Regardless of carbon pricing, the mining and construction sectors are expected to experience strong growth and increase their share of the economy.
State and regional impacts will vary depending on their emission intensity and opportunities to diversify into low‑emission activities.
Shares of the economy, with and without carbon pricing