Executive Summary

Date



Chart 1 Components of real GDP growth per person

The chart shows the annual average contribution to the growth of real GDP per person from the share of the population over 15, the participation rate, the unemployment rate, average hours worked and labour productivity over the past 40 years and the next 40 years. Over the next 40 years labour productivity growth of 1.5 per cent is shown to be the key contributor to real GDP per person growth of 1.5 per cent.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0, 6202.0 and Treasury projections.

Data - Chart 1 Components of real GDP growth per person
Percentage points contribution, annual average Share of population 15+ Participation rate Unemployment rate Average hours worked Labour productivity Real GDP per person
Past 40 years 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 1.5 1.7
Next 40 years 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5

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Chart 2 Underlying cash balance

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, the underlying cash balance is projected to increase from negative 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 1.4 per cent in 2039-40, and then fall to 0.5 per cent in 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, the underlying cash balance is projected to remain in deficit for the whole projection period, deteriorating to around negative 6 per cent of GDP in 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, the underlying cash balance is projected to deteriorate to a deficit of 11.7 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Note: Net Future Fund earnings are included in projections of the underlying cash balance from 2020–21.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2 Underlying cash balance
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
2015-16 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1
2016-17 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8
2017-18 -0.6 -1.1 -1.7
2018-19 -0.4 -1.0 -1.6
2019-20 0.1 -0.9 -1.6
2020-21 0.7 -0.3 -1.3
2021-22 0.8 -0.3 -1.1
2022-23 0.8 -0.4 -1.3
2023-24 0.7 -0.6 -1.6
2024-25 0.8 -0.7 -1.8
2025-26 0.9 -0.8 -2.1
2026-27 0.9 -0.9 -2.3
2027-28 1.1 -1.1 -2.6
2028-29 1.1 -1.2 -2.9
2029-30 1.1 -1.3 -3.1
2030-31 1.1 -1.4 -3.3
2031-32 1.2 -1.5 -3.5
2032-33 1.2 -1.6 -3.8
2033-34 1.3 -1.6 -4.0
2034-35 1.3 -1.7 -4.2
2035-36 1.4 -1.8 -4.5
2036-37 1.4 -1.9 -4.7
2037-38 1.4 -2.0 -5.0
2038-39 1.4 -2.1 -5.2
2039-40 1.4 -2.3 -5.5
2040-41 1.4 -2.4 -5.8
2041-42 1.4 -2.6 -6.1
2042-43 1.4 -2.7 -6.4
2043-44 1.4 -2.9 -6.7
2044-45 1.4 -3.1 -7.0
2045-46 1.3 -3.3 -7.4
2046-47 1.3 -3.5 -7.8
2047-48 1.3 -3.7 -8.2
2048-49 1.2 -3.9 -8.6
2049-50 1.1 -4.2 -9.0
2050-51 1.0 -4.5 -9.6
2051-52 0.9 -4.8 -10.0
2052-53 0.8 -5.1 -10.6
2053-54 0.7 -5.5 -11.1
2054-55 0.5 -5.8 -11.7

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Chart 3 Net debt

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, net debt is projected to improve from 15.2 per cent of GDP in 2014-15, to around 0 per cent of GDP by 2031 32. After this point, net debt improves further, to reach around 15.0 per cent negative net debt in 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, net debt is projected to be significantly higher, reaching 57.2 per cent of GDP in 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, net debt is projected to reach 121.9 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Note: The projections of net debt include net interest payments.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 3 Net debt
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 15.2 15.4 15.4
2015-16 16.7 17.0 17.0
2016-17 17.2 17.8 18.1
2017-18 17.0 18.0 18.9
2018-19 15.9 17.5 18.9
2019-20 14.0 16.4 18.4
2020-21 11.8 15.0 17.9
2021-22 10.2 14.2 17.7
2022-23 8.8 13.8 18.0
2023-24 7.8 13.7 18.8
20
24-25		 6.7 13.8 19.8
2025-26 5.6 14.1 21.1
2026-27 4.5 14.5 22.6
2027-28 3.4 15.0 24.3
2028-29 2.4 15.7 26.2
2029-30 1.3 16.4 28.2
2030-31 0.3 17.0 30.3
2031-32 -0.8 17.8 32.4
2032-33 -1.9 18.5 34.7
2033-34 -2.9 19.3 37.1
2034-35 -4.0 20.2 39.6
2035-36 -5.1 20.9 42.0
2036-37 -6.1 21.9 44.7
2037-38 -7.2 22.8 47.4
2038-39 -8.2 23.8 50.2
2039-40 -9.1 24.9 53.2
2040-41 -10.1 26.0 56.3
2041-42 -10.9 27.3 59.6
2042-43 -11.8 28.7 63.0
2043-44 -12.5 30.2 66.7
2044-45 -13.2 31.8 70.5
2045-46 -13.8 33.4 74.3
2046-47 -14.4 35.3 78.6
2047-48 -14.8 37.4 83.0
2048-49 -15.2 39.6 87.8
2049-50 -15.4 42.1 92.8
2050-51 -15.6 44.6 97.8
2051-52 -15.6 47.4 103.4
2052-53 -15.5 50.5 109.3
2053-54 -15.3 53.7 115.4
2054-55 -15.0 57.2 121.9

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