Appendix C

Date



Chart C.1 Terms of trade projections

The chart shows terms of trade projections over the period 1964-65 to 2054-55. The terms of trade are projected to fall to their 2005-06 level by 2019-20 and remain flat at this level for the rest of the projection period.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury projections.

Data - Chart C.1 Terms of trade projections
Financial Year 2015 IGR
1964-65 67.0
1965-66 67.0
1966-67 66.6
1967-68 63.9
1968-69 65.5
1969-70 66.8
1970-71 62.6
1971-72 58.6
1972-73 69.8
1973-74 75.0
1974-75 68.2
1975-76 65.1
1976-77 63.0
1977-78 57.3
1978-79 57.7
1979-80 59.9
1980-81 59.4
1981-82 58.4
1982-83 57.6
1983-84 59.0
1984-85 58.0
1985-86 52.5
1986-87 49.7
1987-88 54.0
1988-89 62.0
1989-90 62.2
1990-91 58.9
1991-92 57.1
1992-93 54.7
1993-94 53.2
1994-95 54.9
1995-96 56.7
1996-97 58.3
1997-98 58.0
1998-99 55.2
1999-00 57.4
2000-01 58.4
2001-02 59.3
2002-03 60.1
2003-04 64.6
2004-05 70.8
2005-06 78.4
2006-07 84.1
2007-08 88.8
2008-09 95.6
2009-10 91.7
2010-11 110.6
2011-12 111.1
2012-13 100.0
2013-14 96.6
2014-15 83.6
2015-16 80.3
2016-17 79.9
2017-18 79.4
2018-19 78.8
2019-20 78.5
2020-21 78.5
2021-22 78.5
2022-23 78.5
2023-24 78.5
2024-25 78.5
2025-26 78.5
2026-27 78.5
2027-28 78.5
2028-29 78.5
2029-30 78.5
2030-31 78.5
2031-32 78.5
2032-33 78.5
2033-34 78.5
2034-35 78.5
2035-36 78.5
2036-37 78.5
2037-38 78.5
2038-39 78.5
2039-40 78.5
2040-41 78.5
2041-42 78.5
2042-43 78.5
2043-44 78.5
2044-45 78.5
2045-46 78.5
2046-47 78.5
2047-48 78.5
2048-49 78.5
2049-50 78.5
2050-51 78.5
2051-52 78.5
2052-53 78.5
2053-54 78.5
2054-55 78.5

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Chart C.2 Nominal GDP projections

The chart shows nominal GDP growth projections over the period 2014-15 to 2054-55, decomposed into growth in output and prices. Nominal GDP is projected to grow at an average of around 5¼ per cent a year over the projection period, unchanged from the 2010 report.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart C.2 Nominal GDP projections
Per cent Real GDP Prices Nominal GDP
1974-75 1.3 16.7 18.0
1975-76 2.6 14.4 17.0
1976-77 3.6 11.8 15.4
1977-78 0.9 8.3 9.2
1978-79 4.1 9.0 13.0
1979-80 3.1 10.3 13.4
1980-81 3.4 9.8 13.2
1981-82 3.3 12.1 15.4
1982-83 -2.2 9.9 7.7
1983-84 4.6 8.2 12.9
1984-85 5.3 4.9 10.1
1985-86 4.1 6.7 10.8
1986-87 2.6 7.2 9.8
1987-88 5.8 7.6 13.4
1988-89 3.9 9.6 13.5
1989-90 3.5 6.3 9.9
1990-91 -0.4 3.1 2.7
1991-92 0.4 1.6 2.0
1992-93 4.0 1.0 5.0
1993-94 4.0 1.1 5.1
1994-95 3.9 2.3 6.2
1995-96 4.0 2.8 6.7
1996-97 3.9 1.3 5.2
1997-98 4.4 1.3 5.8
1998-99 5.0 0.4 5.4
1999-00 3.9 2.7 6.5
2000-01 1.9 4.8 6.7
2001-02 3.9 3.0 6.8
2002-03 3.1 3.2 6.3
2003-04 4.2 3.4 7.6
2004-05 3.2 3.8 7.1
2005-06 3.0 5.2 8.2
2006-07 3.8 5.2 8.9
2007-08 3.7 4.7 8.4
2008-09 1.7 5.0 6.8
2009-10 2.0 1.0 3.0
2010-11 2.3 6.3 8.7
2011-12 3.7 2.0 5.7
2012-13 2.5 -0.3 2.2
2013-14 2.5 1.6 4.0
2014-15 2.4 -0.8 1.6
2015-16 2.9 1.6 4.5
2016-17 3.6 1.6 5.1
2017-18 3.6 1.7 5.2
2018-19 3.6 1.8 5.4
2019-20 3.6 1.9 5.5
2020-21 3.6 2.3 5.9
2021-22 3.1 2.6 5.7
2022-23 2.9 2.6 5.5
2023-24 2.8 2.6 5.4
2024-25 2.8 2.6 5.4
2025-26 2.7 2.7 5.4
2026-27 2.8 2.6 5.4
2027-28 2.8 2.6 5.4
2028-29 2.8 2.6 5.4
2029-30 2.8 2.6 5.4
2030-31 2.8 2.6 5.4
2031-32 2.8 2.6 5.4
2032-33 2.8 2.6 5.4
2033-34 2.8 2.6 5.4
2034-35 2.8 2.6 5.4
2035-36 2.8 2.6 5.4
2036-37 2.8 2.6 5.3
2037-38 2.8 2.6 5.3
2038-39 2.7 2.6 5.3
2039-40 2.7 2.6 5.3
2040-41 2.7 2.6 5.3
2041-42 2.7 2.6 5.2
2042-43 2.6 2.6 5.2
2043-44 2.6 2.6 5.2
2044-45 2.6 2.6 5.2
2045-46 2.6 2.6 5.1
2046-47 2.5 2.6 5.1
2047-48 2.5 2.6 5.1
2048-49 2.5 2.6 5.0
2049-50 2.4 2.6 5.0
2050-51 2.4 2.6 5.0
2051-52 2.4 2.6 5.0
2052-53 2.4 2.6 4.9
2053-54 2.3 2.6 4.9
2054-55 2.3 2.6 4.9

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Chart C.4 Projected tax–to–GDP ratio

This area chart shows the projected Australian Government tax receipts as a percentage of GDP from 2014-15 to 2054-55. The chart breaks up these tax receipts into two sub-categories: goods and services tax (GST) receipts and all other Australian Government tax receipts. Total Australian Government tax receipts grow from an estimated 22.0 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to a projected 23.9 per cent of GDP in 2020-21, after which it remains stable at 23.9 per cent of GDP. GST receipts comprise approximately 3.4 per cent of GDP throughout most of the period.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart C.4 Projected tax–to–GDP ratio
  Total tax excluding GST GST
2014-15 18.7 3.3
2015-16 19.0 3.4
2016-17 19.4 3.4
2017-18 19.6 3.4
2018-19 19.9 3.4
2019-20 20.3 3.4
2020-21 20.5 3.4
2021-22 20.5 3.4
2022-23 20.5 3.4
2023-24 20.5 3.4
2024-25 20.5 3.4
2025-26 20.5 3.4
2026-27 20.5 3.4
2027-28 20.5 3.4
2028-29 20.5 3.4
2029-30 20.5 3.4
2030-31 20.5 3.4
2031-32 20.5 3.4
2032-33 20.5 3.4
2033-34 20.5 3.4
2034-35 20.5 3.4
2035-36 20.5 3.4
2036-37 20.5 3.4
2037-38 20.5 3.4
2038-39 20.5 3.4
2039-40 20.5 3.4
2040-41 20.5 3.4
2041-42 20.5 3.4
2042-43 20.5 3.4
2043-44 20.5 3.4
2044-45 20.5 3.4
2045-46 20.5 3.4
2046-47 20.5 3.4
2047-48 20.5 3.4
2048-49 20.5 3.4
2049-50 20.5 3.4
2050-51 20.5 3.4
2051-52 20.5 3.4
2052-53 20.5 3.4
2053-54 20.5 3.4
2054-55 20.5 3.4

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Chart C.5 Total Australian Government taxation receipts, 1973–74 to 2013–14

Between 2000-01 and 2007-08, the average tax-to-GDP ratio was 23.9 per cent (including GST). Since the onset of the GFC, the average tax-to-GDP ratio has been 20.9 per cent.

Source: Treasury.

Data - Chart C.5 Total Australian Government taxation receipts, 1973–74 to 2013–14
  GST Total tax less GST
1973-74 0.0 18.0
1974-75 0.0 19.9
1975-76 0.0 20.3
1976-77 0.0 20.5
1977-78 0.0 20.4
1978-79 0.0 19.8
1979-80 0.0 20.5
1980-81 0.0 21.5
1981-82 0.0 21.6
1982-83 0.0 21.7
1983-84 0.0 21.0
1984-85 0.0 22.5
1985-86 0.0 22.6
1986-87 0.0 23.3
1987-88 0.0 23.2
1988-89 0.0 22.7
1989-90 0.0 22.5
1990-91 0.0 22.4
1991-92 0.0 20.7
1992-93 0.0 20.0
1993-94 0.0 20.0
1994-95 0.0 21.2
1995-96 0.0 21.9
1996-97 0.0 22.4
1997-98 0.0 22.2
1998-99 0.0 22.3
1999-00 0.0 22.9
2000-01 3.4 20.8
2001-02 3.6 19.7
2002-03 3.8 20.2
2003-04 3.8 20.1
2004-05 3.8 20.4
2005-06 3.7 20.4
2006-07 3.6 20.0
2007-08 3.6 20.0
2008-09 3.3 18.4
2009-10 3.4 16.7
2010-11 3.3 16.7
2011-12 3.1 17.7
2012-13 3.2 18.3
2013-14 3.2 18.1

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Chart C.6 Impact of policy changes on Australian Government tax receipts, 1978–79 to 2013–14 (a)

(a)  Wholesale Sales Tax (WST) has been included in all three series on the basis of actual collections, as a no–policy–change series for this tax in not available.

(b)  The impact of policy changes in this analysis was calculated between pairs of sequential years and then aggregated. As the analysis period increases, there is an increased level of uncertainty with the total policy impact since 1978–79.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Budget Paper No. 1 (various years).

Data - Chart C.6 Impact of policy changes on Australian Government tax receipts, 1978–79 to 2013–14
  Actual tax receipts No policy change Personal income tax changes only
1978-79 19.8 19.8 19.8
1979-80 20.5 19.5 19.8
1980-81 21.5 21.4 20.5
1981-82 21.6 22.0 20.8
1982-83 21.7 22.5 20.6
1983-84 21.0 21.6 19.6
1984-85 22.5 22.7 20.3
1985-86 22.6 23.1 20.5
1986-87 23.3 23.7 20.6
1987-88 23.2 24.6 20.6
1988-89 22.7 24.5 20.5
1989-90 22.5 25.5 20.3
1990-91 22.4 26.2 20.5
1991-92 20.7 25.0 19.0
1992-93 20.0 24.4 19.1
1993-94 20.0 24.5 18.9
1994-95 21.2 26.0 19.7
1995-96 21.9 26.3 19.9
1996-97 22.4 26.0 20.0
1997-98 22.2 25.8 19.9
1998-99 22.3 25.9 20.0
1999-00 22.9 26.6 20.6
2000-01 24.2 29.0 20.9
2001-02 23.2 28.2 20.3
2002-03 24.0 29.1 21.0
2003-04 23.9 29.4 21.0
2004-05 24.2 30.1 21.3
2005-06 24.2 30.7 21.3
2006-07 23.7 31.2 21.0
2007-08 23.6 32.2 21.1
2008-09 21.7 30.5 19.2
2009-10 20.1 28.8 17.9
2010-11 19.9 28.3 17.4
2011-12 20.8 29.6 18.1
2012-13 21.5 30.2 18.3
2013-14 21.4 29.4 17.9

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Chart C.7     Historical real growth in Australian Government health spending by component, 1984–85 to 2012–13

Note: Spend in 1984-85 =1. Other health expenditure includes expenditure on the private health insurance rebate as the rebate commenced in July 1997 and therefore no index can be calculated independently over this time frame.

Source: Department of Health, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and the Commonwealth Government Budget papers.

Data - Chart C.7     Historical real growth in Australian Government health spending by component, 1984–85 to 2012–13
  PBS MBS Public hospitals Other (including private health insurance)
1984-85 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
1985-86 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
1986-87 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
1987-88 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0
1988-89 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0
1989-90 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.0
1990-91 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1
1991-92 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.2
1992-93 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.1
1993-94 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.2
1994-95 1.5 2.1 1.2 1.3
1995-96 1.5 2.4 1.1 1.4
1996-97 1.5 2.6 1.1 1.5
1997-98 1.6 2.8 1.3 1.6
1998-99 1.6 3.1 1.4 1.9
1999-00 1.7 3.4 1.4 1.6
2000-01 1.6 3.8 1.5 1.6
2001-02 1.7 4.1 1.5 1.8
2002-03 1.7 4.4 1.6 1.8
2003-04 1.8 4.7 1.6 2.0
2004-05 2.0 4.9 1.7 2.3
2005-06 2.2 4.9 1.7 2.3
2006-07 2.2 4.9 1.8 2.4
2007-08 2.4 5.2 1.9 2.6
2008-09 2.6 5.6 2.0 2.9
2009-10 2.7 5.9 2.1 2.7
2010-11 2.8 6.0 2.3 3.0
2011-12 2.9 6.1 2.3 3.6
2012-13 3.0 5.9 2.3 3.2

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Chart C.8 Australian Government health spending - income adjustment

This chart shows projections of Australian Government health care spending, with and without the incorporation of an income effect. If future growth in Australian Government health spending reflected slower income growth during the projection period (with an income elasticity of one), projections of total health care spending in 2054-55 would be 5.0 per cent of GDP, rather than the 5.5 per cent of GDP projected in the 'proposed policy' scenario.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart C.8 Australian Government health spending - income adjustment
  No Income Adjustment Income Adjustment
2014-15 4.2 4.2
2015-16 4.1 4.1
2016-17 4.0 4.0
2017-18 4.0 4.0
2018-19 4.0 4.0
2019-20 4.0 4.0
2020-21 4.0 4.0
2021-22 3.9 3.9
2022-23 3.9 3.9
2023-24 3.9 3.9
2024-25 3.9 3.9
2025-26 3.9 3.9
2026-27 3.9 3.9
2027-28 3.9 3.9
2028-29 3.9 3.9
2029-30 3.9 3.9
2030-31 3.9 3.9
2031-32 3.9 3.9
2032-33 3.9 3.9
2033-34 3.9 3.9
2034-35 4.0 3.9
2035-36 4.0 4.0
2036-37 4.0 4.0
2037-38 4.1 4.0
2038-39 4.2 4.1
2039-40 4.2 4.1
2040-41 4.3 4.1
2041-42 4.4 4.2
2042-43 4.4 4.2
2043-44 4.5 4.3
2044-45 4.6 4.4
2045-46 4.7 4.4
2046-47 4.8 4.5
2047-48 4.8 4.5
2048-49 4.9 4.6
2049-50 5.0 4.7
2050-51 5.1 4.7
2051-52 5.2 4.8
2052-53 5.3 4.8
2053-54 5.4 4.9
2054-55 5.5 5.0

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