Chapter 2

Date



Chart 2.1 Underlying cash balance

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, the underlying cash balance is projected to increase from negative 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 1.4 per cent in 2039-40, and then fall to 0.5 per cent in 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, the underlying cash balance is projected to remain in deficit for the whole projection period, deteriorating to around negative 6 per cent of GDP in 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, the underlying cash balance is projected to deteriorate to a deficit of 11.7 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Note: Net Future Fund earnings are included in projections of the underlying cash balance from 2020–21.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.1 Underlying cash balance
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014‑15 ‑2.5 ‑2.5 ‑2.5
2015‑16 ‑1.9 ‑2.0 ‑2.1
2016‑17 ‑1.2 ‑1.5 ‑1.8
2017‑18 ‑0.6 ‑1.1 ‑1.7
2018‑19 ‑0.4 ‑1.0 ‑1.6
2019‑20 0.1 ‑0.9 ‑1.6
2020‑21 0.7 ‑0.3 ‑1.3
2021‑22 0.8 ‑0.3 ‑1.1
2022‑23 0.8 ‑0.4 ‑1.3
2023‑24 0.7 ‑0.6 ‑1.6
2024‑25 0.8 ‑0.7 ‑1.8
2025‑26 0.9 ‑0.8 ‑2.1
2026‑27 0.9 ‑0.9 ‑2.3
2027‑28 1.1 ‑1.1 ‑2.6
2028‑29 1.1 ‑1.2 ‑2.9
2029‑30 1.1 ‑1.3 ‑3.1
2030‑31 1.1 ‑1.4 ‑3.3
2031‑32 1.2 ‑1.5 ‑3.5
2032‑33 1.2 ‑1.6 ‑3.8
2033‑34 1.3 ‑1.6 ‑4.0
2034‑35 1.3 ‑1.7 ‑4.2
2035‑36 1.4 ‑1.8 ‑4.5
2036‑37 1.4 ‑1.9 ‑4.7
2037‑38 1.4 ‑2.0 ‑5.0
2038‑39 1.4 ‑2.1 ‑5.2
2039‑40 1.4 ‑2.3 ‑5.5
2040‑41 1.4 ‑2.4 ‑5.8
2041‑42 1.4 ‑2.6 ‑6.1
2042‑43 1.4 ‑2.7 ‑6.4
2043‑44 1.4 ‑2.9 ‑6.7
2044‑45 1.4 ‑3.1 ‑7.0
2045‑46 1.3 ‑3.3 ‑7.4
2046‑47 1.3 ‑3.5 ‑7.8
2047‑48 1.3 ‑3.7 ‑8.2
2048‑49 1.2 ‑3.9 ‑8.6
2049‑50 1.1 ‑4.2 ‑9.0
2050‑51 1.0 ‑4.5 ‑9.6
2051‑52 0.9 ‑4.8 ‑10.0
2052‑53 0.8 ‑5.1 ‑10.6
2053‑54 0.7 ‑5.5 ‑11.1
2054‑55 0.5 ‑5.8 ‑11.7

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Chart 2.2 Total Australian Government spending

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, total Australian Government spending is projected to reach 25.9 per cent of GDP in 2054-55, broadly similar to the 2014-15 level. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, it is projected to rise to 31.1 per cent of GDP in 2054-55, well above the long-term average of 24.7 per cent of GDP. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, total spending is projected to reach 37.0 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Notes: The long–term average payments–to–GDP ratio is 24.7 per cent of GDP, calculated over a 40 year period from 1974–75 to 2013–14.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.2 Total Australian Government spending
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy Long-term average payments
2014‑15 25.9 25.9 25.9 24.7
2015‑16 25.7 25.8 25.8 24.7
2016‑17 25.3 25.5 25.7 24.7
2017‑18 25.2 25.5 26.1 24.7
2018‑19 25.4 25.9 26.5 24.7
2019‑20 25.3 26.1 26.8 24.7
2020‑21 25.2 26.1 27.1 24.7
2021‑22 25.1 26.1 26.9 24.7
2022‑23 25.0 26.2 27.1 24.7
2023‑24 25.1 26.4 27.4 24.7
2024‑25 25.0 26.4 27.6 24.7
2025‑26 2 4.9 26.5 27.8 24.7
2026‑27 24.8 26.6 28.0 24.7
2027‑28 24.7 26.8 28.3 24.7
2028‑29 24.6 26.9 28.5 24.7
2029‑30 24.6 27.0 28.7 24.7
2030‑31 24.6 27.0 28.9 24.7
2031‑32 24.6 27.1 29.1 24.7
2032‑33 24.6 27.2 29.3 24.7
2033‑34 24.6 27.2 29.6 24.7
2034‑35 24.6 27.3 29.8 24.7
2035‑36 24.6 27.4 30.0 24.7
2036‑37 24.6 27.5 30.2 24.7
2037‑38 24.7 27.5 30.5 24.7
2038‑39 24.7 27.6 30.7 24.7
2039‑40 24.7 27.7 31.0 24.7
2040‑41 24.8 27.9 31.3 24.7
2041‑42 24.8 28.0 31.5 24.7
2042‑43 24.9 28.2 31.8 24.7
2043‑44 24.9 28.3 32.1 24.7
2044‑45 25.0 28.5 32.4 24.7
2045‑46 25.0 28.7 32.8 24.7
2046‑47 25.1 28.9 33.2 24.7
2047‑48 25.2 29.1 33.5 24.7
2048‑49 25.2 29.3 33.9 24.7
2049‑50 25.3 29.5 34.4 24.7
2050‑51 25.4 29.9 34.9 24.7
2051‑52 25.5 30.1 35.4 24.7
2052‑53 25.6 30.5 35.9 24.7
2053‑54 25.8 30.8 36.4 24.7
2054‑55 25.9 31.2 37.0 24.7

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Chart 2.3 Primary cash balance

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, the primary balance is projected to rise from a deficit of 1.8 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to a maximum surplus of 1.4 per cent in 2035-36, and then fall gradually to around 0 per cent of GDP by 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, the primary balance reaches maximum surplus of 0.3 per cent in 2021-22, before returning to deficit around 2025-26, and then continuing to deterioate, reaching a deficit of 2.4 per cent of GDP by 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, th primary balance is projected to reach a deficit of 4.6 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Note: The projections are of the primary cash balance (which excludes net interest payments and net Future Fund earnings).

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.3 Primary cash balance
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014‑15 ‑1.8 ‑1.8 ‑1.8
2015‑16 ‑1.1 ‑1.3 ‑1.3
2016‑17 ‑0.4 ‑0.7 ‑1.0
2017‑18 0.1 ‑0.3 ‑0.9
2018‑19 0.4 ‑0.2 ‑0.8
2019‑20 0.8 ‑0.1 ‑0.7
2020‑21 1.1 0.2 ‑0.6
2021‑22 1.2 0.3 ‑0.4
2022‑23 1.2 0.2 ‑0.5
2023‑24 1.1 0.1 ‑0.7
2024‑25 1.2 0.1 ‑0.8
2025‑26 1.3 0.0 ‑0.9
2026‑27 1.3 ‑0.1 ‑1.0
2027‑28 1.4 ‑0.2 ‑1.2
2028‑29 1.4 ‑0.2 ‑1.3
2029‑30 1.4 ‑0.3 ‑1.4
2030‑31 1.4 ‑0.3 ‑1.5
2031‑32 1.4 ‑0.3 ‑1.5
2032‑33 1.4 ‑0.3 ‑1.6
2033‑34 1.4 ‑0.4 ‑1.7
2034‑35 1.4 ‑0.4 ‑1.8
2035‑36 1.4 ‑0.4 ‑1.9
2036‑37 1.4 ‑0.5 ‑2.0
2037‑38 1.4 ‑0.5 ‑2.1
2038‑39 1.3 ‑0.6 ‑2.2
2039‑40 1.3 ‑0.7 ‑2.3
2040‑41 1.3 ‑0.7 ‑2.4
2041‑42 1.2 ‑0.8 ‑2.5
2042‑43 1.2 ‑0.9 ‑2.6
2043‑44 1.1 ‑1.0 ‑2.7
2044‑45 1.0 ‑1.1 ‑2.8
2045‑46 1.0 ‑1.1 ‑3.0
2046‑47 0.9 ‑1.3 ‑3.1
2047‑48 0.8 ‑1.4 ‑3.3
2048‑49 0.7 ‑1.5 ‑3.4
2049‑50 0.7 ‑1.6 ‑3.6
2050‑51 0.6 ‑1.7 ‑3.8
2051‑52 0.4 ‑1.9 ‑3.9
2052‑53 0.3 ‑2.0 ‑4.1
2053‑54 0.2 ‑2.2 ‑4.4
2054‑55 0.0 ‑2.4 ‑4.6

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Chart 2.4 Net debt

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, net debt is projected to improve from 15.2 per cent of GDP in 2014-15, to around 0 per cent of GDP by 2031 32. After this point, net debt improves further, to reach around 15.0 per cent negative net debt in 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, net debt is projected to be significantly higher, reaching 57.2 per cent of GDP in 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, net debt is projected to reach 121.9 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Note: The projections of net debt include net interest payments.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.4 Net debt
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014‑15 15.2 15.4 15.4
2015‑16 16.7 17.0 17.0
2016‑17 17.2 17.8 18.1
2017‑18 17.0 18.0 18.9
2018‑19 15.9 17.5 18.9
2019‑20 14.0 16.4 18.4
2020‑21 11.8 15.0 17.9
2021‑22 10.2 14.2 17.7
2022‑23 8.8 13.8 18.0
2023‑24 7.8 13.7 18.8
2024‑25 6.7 13.8 19.8
2025‑26 5.6 14.1 21.1
2026‑27 4.5 14.5 22.6
2027‑28 3.4 15.0 24.3
2028‑29 2.4 15.7 26.2
2029‑30 1.3 16.4 28.2
2030‑31 0.3 17.0 30.3
2031‑32 ‑0.8 17.8 32.4
2032‑33 ‑1.9 18.5 34.7
2033‑34 ‑2.9 19.3 37.1
2034‑35 ‑4.0 20.2 39.6
2035‑36 ‑5.1 20.9 42.0
2036‑37 ‑6.1 21.9 44.7
2037‑38 ‑7.2 22.8 47.4
2038‑39 ‑8.2 23.8 50.2
2039‑40 ‑9.1 24.9 53.2
2040‑41 ‑10.1 26.0 56.3
2041‑42 ‑10.9 27.3 59.6
2042‑43 ‑11.8 28.7 63.0
2043‑44 ‑12.5 30.2 66.7
2044‑45 ‑13.2 31.8 70.5
2045‑46 ‑13.8 33.4 74.3
2046‑47 ‑14.4 35.3 78.6
2047‑48 ‑14.8 37.4 83.0
2048‑49 ‑15.2 39.6 87.8
2049‑50 ‑15.4 42.1 92.8
2050‑51 ‑15.6 44.6 97.8
2051‑52 ‑15.6 47.4 103.4
2052‑53 ‑15.5 50.5 109.3
2053‑54 ‑15.3 53.7 115.4
2054‑55 ‑15.0 57.2 121.9

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Chart 2.5 Net debt — international comparison

Compared to the 2013 net debt estimates of other OECD countries, Australia's net debt level in 2054-55 would be placed in the high end under the 'previous policy' scenario, around the middle under the 'currently legislated' scenario, and in the low end in the 'proposed policy' scenario.

Note: For cross–country comparability, net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (Australia, Canada, and the United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees' defined benefit pension plans.

(a) Commonwealth general government net debt only; does not include net debt of states and territories.

Source: Treasury projections for Australia, IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2014) estimates for 2013 for all other countries.

Data - Chart 2.5 Net debt — international comparison
Country Per cent of GDP
Greece 170
Japan 134
Australia 2054‑55 ‑ Previous policy 122
Italy 111
France 85
United Kingdom 83
United States 80
Spain 60
Australia 2054‑55 ‑ Currently legislated 57
Germany 56
Canada 38
Korea 33
Netherlands 32
New Zealand 26
Australia 2014‑15 15
Australia 2054‑55 ‑ Proposed policy ‑15

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Chart 2.6 Irish gross debt expected at 2007 Budget and outcomes, 2001 to 2013

In Ireland, gross debt was estimated at around 25.1 per cent of GDP in 2006. The 2007 Budget, which was released in 2006, forecast that gross debt would decline across the forward estimates, falling to 21.9 per cent of GDP in 2009. However, in 2014 the Irish Government recorded gross debt of 124 per cent of GDP in 2013.

Note: Outcomes and projections for the financial year ending 31 December.

Source: Irish Department of Finance, Budgetary Statistics 2014; Irish Department of Finance, Budget 2007.

Data - Chart 2.6 Irish gross debt expected at 2007 Budget and outcomes, 2001 to 2013
  2007 Budget (December 2006) Outcomes reported in 2014
2001 35.4 34.5
2002 32.2 31.8
2003 31.1 31.0
2004 29.7 29.4
2005 27.4 27.2
2006 25.1 24.6
2007 23.0 24.9
2008 22.4 44.2
2009 21.9 64.4
2010   87.4
2011   111.1
2012   121.7
2013   123.3

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Chart 2.7 Net financial worth

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, net financial worth is projected to rise negative 21.6 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 27.7 per cent in 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, it is projected to deteriorate to negative 43.4 per cent of GDP in 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, net financial worth is projected to fall to negative 104.9 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.7 Net financial worth
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 -21.6 -21.8 -21.8
2015-16 -22.3 -22.6 -22.7
2016-17 -22.2 -22.8 -23.1
2017-18 -21.5 -22.5 -23.4
2018-19 -19.2 -20.9 -22.3
2019-20 -16.4 -19.0 -21.0
2020-21 -13.5 -16.9 -19.7
2021-22 -11.0 -15.3 -18.7
2022-23 -8.9 -14.1 -18.3
2023-24 -7.1 -13.4 -18.4
2024-25 -5.4 -12.9 -18.7
2025-26 -3.6 -12.5 -19.3
2026-27 -2.0 -12.3 -20.2
2027-28 -0.3 -12.3 -21.3
2028-29 1.3 -12.4 -22.6
2029-30 2.9 -12.6 -24.1
2030-31 4.4 -12.7 -25.5
2031-32 6.0 -13.0 -27.1
2032-33 7.5 -13.3 -28.9
2033-34 9.0 -13.6 -30.7
2034-35 10.4 -14.0 -32.7
2035-36 12.0 -14.3 -34.6
2036-37 13.4 -14.8 -36.8
2037-38 14.8 -15.4 -39.1
2038-39 16.2 -16.0 -41.4
2039-40 17.5 -16.7 -44.0
2040-41 18.7 -17.5 -46.5
2041-42 19.9 -18.4 -49.4
2042-43 21.0 -19.4 -52.4
2043-44 22.0 -20.6 -55.6
2044-45 23.0 -21.9 -58.9
2045-46 23.9 -23.2 -62.3
2046-47 24.7 -24.8 -66.1
2047-48 25.5 -26.5 -70.1
2048-49 26.1 -28.3 -74.3
2049-50 26.7 -30.4 -78.8
2050-51 27.2 -32.5 -83.2
2051-52 27.5 -34.9 -88.2
2052-53 27.7 -37.5 -93.5
2053-54 27.8 -40.4 -99.1
2054-55 27.7 -43.4 -104.9

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Chart 2.8 Total government spending and taxes by age (2009–10)

In 2009-10, government spending is highest for young (0-14 years old) and older (65 years and above) Australians, while tax receipts are highest for those between 15 and 54 years old.

Note: Total government refers to Australian Government and State and Territory governments.

Source: Rice, Temple and McDonald, 2013.

Data - Chart 2.8 Total government spending and taxes by age (2009-10)
Government spending (Commonwealth plus State) and taxes by age (2009-10) - $000
Age Public spending Taxes
0 14.3 1.6
1 13.8 1.6
2 13.3 1.7
3 15.9 1.7
4 15.4 1.8
5 19.6 1.9
6 19.3 2.0
7 19.0 2.1
8 18.8 2.2
9 18.6 2.3
10 19.1 2.5
11 19.0 2.6
12 18.8 2.7
13 18.6 2.8
14 18.4 3.0
15 17.8 3.4
16 18.1 3.8
17 16.7 4.6
18 13.4 5.5
19 13.3 6.5
20 13.8 7.7
21 12.2 8.9
22 12.2 10.1
23 11.4 11.4
24 10.9 12.6
25 10.2 13.7
26 10.3 14.6
27 10.3 15.4
28 10.4 16.0
29 10.5 16.4
30 10.4 16.8
31 10.6 17.2
32 10.8 17.8
33 10.9 18.5
34 11.1 19.3
35 11.1 20.3
36 11.3 21.3
37 11.5 22.4
38 11.7 23.5
39 11.9 24.7
40 12.1 26.0
41 12.3 26.9
42 12.5 27.4
43 12.6 27.4
44 12.7 27.1
45 12.7 26.4
46 12.8 26.0
47 13.1 25.8
48 13.4 25.9
49 13.8 26.2
50 14.4 26.7
51 14.7 26.8
52 15.0 27.0
53 15.2 26.9
54 15.3 26.8
55 15.2 26.4
56 15.4 26.1
57 15.6 25.2
58 15.6 23.7
59 15.9 21.8
60 16.4 19.8
61 16.9 17.8
62 17.7 16.1
63 18.7 14.7
64 19.8 13.5
65 21.1 12.5
66 22.1 11.7
67 23.0 11.2
68 23.8 11.0
69 24.6 10.9
70 25.6 11.0
71 26.4 11.0
72 27.2 10.9
73 28.0 10.6
74 28.8 10.2
75 30.3 9.6
76 31.1 9.1
77 32.0 8.8
78 32.7 8.7
79 33.5 8.8
80 and over 43.4 8.6

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Chart 2.9 Historical health spending

This chart shows the pattern of Australian Government spending, State and Territory Government spending and private spending on health care from 1984-85 to 2012-13 as a proportion of GDP. The Australian Government is the largest contributor to total health spending, spending 4.0 per cent of GDP on health in 2012-13. State and Territory governments spent 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2012-13, and non-government organisations and individuals spent 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2012-13.

Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare health spending database.

Data - Chart 2.9 Historical health spending
  Australian Government State and local Non-government
1984-85 2.8 1.8 1.9
1985-86 2.8 1.8 1.9
1986-87 2.8 1.9 2.1
1987-88 2.7 1.8 2.0
1988-89 2.6 1.8 2.1
1989-90 2.6 1.8 2.2
1990-91 2.8 1.8 2.3
1991-92 2.9 1.9 2.4
1992-93 3.0 1.8 2.5
1993-94 3.2 1.6 2.5
1994-95 3.2 1.7 2.5
1995-96 3.2 1.7 2.5
1996-97 3.1 1.9 2.6
1997-98 3.2 1.9 2.5
1998-99 3.4 1.9 2.6
1999-00 3.5 2.0 2.4
2000-01 3.7 1.9 2.7
2001-02 3.7 1.9 2.7
2002-03 3.7 2.1 2.7
2003-04 3.7 2.0 2.8
2004-05 3.9 2.1 2.8
2005-06 3.7 2.2 2.8
2006-07 3.7 2.3 2.8
2007-08 3.8 2.2 2.8
2008-09 4.0 2.3 2.8
2009-10 4.1 2.5 2.8
2010-11 4.0 2.4 2.9
2011-12 4.1 2.6 2.9
2012-13 4.0 2.6 3.1

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Chart 2.10 Australian Government health spending

This chart shows projections of Australian government health spending (as a proportion of GDP) in three different scenarios - the 'proposed policy' scenario, the 'currently legislated' scenario, and the 'previous policy' scenario. Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, based on the forward estimates as at MYEFO 2014-15, health spending is projected to be 5.5 per cent of GDP by 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, health spending is projected to reach 5.7 per cent of GDP by 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, health spending is projected to reach 7.1 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Note: Under the 'previous policy' scenario, health spending in 2020–21 is significantly higher than in the adjacent years owing to guarantee payments under the National Health Reform Agreement.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.10 Australian Government health spending
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 4.2 4.2 4.2
2015-16 4.1 4.2 4.2
2016-17 4.0 4.1 4.2
2017-18 4.0 4.1 4.2
2018-19 4.0 4.1 4.2
2019-20 4.0 4.0 4.2
2020-21 4.0 4.0 4.5
2021-22 3.9 4.0 4.3
2022-23 3.9 4.0 4.3
2023-24 3.9 4.0 4.4
2024-25 3.9 4.0 4.4
2025-26 3.9 4.0 4.4
2026-27 3.9 4.0 4.5
2027-28 3.9 4.0 4.5
2028-29 3.9 4.0 4.6
2029-30 3.9 4.0 4.6
2030-31 3.9 4.0 4.7
2031-32 3.9 4.0 4.7
2032-33 3.9 4.0 4.8
2033-34 3.9 4.0 4.9
2034-35 4.0 4.1 4.9
2035-36 4.0 4.1 5.0
2036-37 4.0 4.2 5.1
2037-38 4.1 4.2 5.2
2038-39 4.2 4.3 5.3
2039-40 4.2 4.3 5.4
2040-41 4.3 4.4 5.5
2041-42 4.4 4.5 5.6
2042-43 4.4 4.6 5.7
2043-44 4.5 4.6 5.8
2044-45 4.6 4.7 5.9
2045-46 4.7 4.8 6.0
2046-47 4.8 4.9 6.1
2047-48 4.8 5.0 6.2
2048-49 4.9 5.1 6.3
2049-50 5.0 5.2 6.5
2050-51 5.1 5.3 6.6
2051-52 5.2 5.4 6.7
2052-53 5.3 5.5 6.8
2053-54 5.4 5.6 7.0
2054-55 5.5 5.7 7.1

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Chart 2.11 Australian Government health spending per person with and without ageing (real 2014-15 dollars)

This chart shows projections of Australian Government health spending in real per person terms under two scenarios. The 'proposed policy' scenario incorporates both changes in the age structure and the influence of non-demographic factors. The second scenario only incorporates the effect of non-demographic growth. In 2014-15, real per person spending is $2800. By 2054-55, real per person spending is projected to reach around $6500 in today's dollars. If the effects of the ageing of the population are excluded, real per person spending is projected to reach around $5900 in today's dollars.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.11 Australian Government health spending per person with and without ageing (real 2014-15 dollars)
  Proposed policy (includes ageing and non-demographic factors) Non-demographic factors only
2014-15 2800 2800
2015-16 2800 2800
2016-17 2800 2800
2017-18 2800 2800
2018-19 2800 2800
2019-20 2800 2800
2020-21 2800 2800
2021-22 2900 2800
2022-23 2900 2900
2023-24 2900 2900
2024-25 3000 2900
2025-26 3000 2900
2026-27 3100 3000
2027-28 3100 3000
2028-29 3100 3000
2029-30 3200 3100
2030-31 3200 3100
2031-32 3300 3200
2032-33 3300 3200
2033-34 3400 3300
2034-35 3500 3300
2035-36 3600 3400
2036-37 3700 3500
2037-38 3800 3600
2038-39 3900 3700
2039-40 4000 3800
2040-41 4100 3900
2041-42 4200 4000
2042-43 4400 4100
2043-44 4500 4300
2044-45 4700 4400
2045-46 4800 4500
2046-47 5000 4600
2047-48 5200 4800
2048-49 5300 4900
2049-50 5500 5100
2050-51 5700 5200
2051-52 5900 5400
2052-53 6100 5500
2053-54 6300 5700
2054-55 6500 5900

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Chart 2.12 Australian Government health spending by program based on age

This chart shows the age profile Australian Government health spending in 2012-13 for major components of health expenditure including Medical Benefits, Pharmaceutical Benefits and Public Hospital services, where the average cost per person is set equal to one. Spending for older age groups is substantially higher than the average person across the major health programmes.

Note: Index of average cost per person in 2012‑13 = 1.

Source: Department of Health.

Data - Chart 2.12 Australian Government health spending by program based on age
  Medicare Benefits Schedule Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme Public hospitals
0-4 0.5 0.1 0.8
5-9 0.3 0.1 0.2
10-14 0.4 0.1 0.2
15-19 0.5 0.1 0.4
20-24 0.5 0.2 0.5
25-29 0.6 0.3 0.6
30-34 0.8 0.4 0.7
35-39 0.9 0.5 0.7
40-44 0.9 0.7 0.7
45-49 0.9 0.8 0.7
50-54 1.1 1 0.9
55-59 1.3 1.3 1.1
60-64 1.6 1.9 1.5
65-69 1.9 2.7 2
70-74 2.3 3.5 2.6
75-79 2.8 4.2 3.3
80-84 3 4.7 3.9
85+ 2.8 4.7 4.6

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Chart 2.13 Australian Government health spending by component

(excludes contributions to the Medical Research Future Fund)

This chart shows projections of Australian Government health care spending by component (medical benefits, pharmaceutical benefits, public hospital funding, private health insurance rebate) under the 'proposed policy' scenario from 2014-15 to 2027-28, and in aggregate from 2028-29 to 2054-55. Australian Government health care spending is projected to increase from 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections, 'proposed policy' scenario. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

3.9

Data - Chart 2.13 Australian Government health spending by component
X Values Medical benefits Pharmaceutical Benefits Public hospitals Private health insurance Other Total health
2014-15 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.9  
2015-16 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.9  
2016-17 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.8  
2017-18 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.8  
2018-19 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.8  
2019-20 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.8  
2020-21 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2021-22 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2022-23 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2023-24 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2024-25 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2025-26 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2026-27 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2027-28 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8  
2028-29           3.9
2029-30          
2030-31           3.9
2031-32           3.9
2032-33           3.9
2033-34           3.9
2034-35           4.0
2035-36           4.0
2036-37           4.0
2037-38           4.1
2038-39           4.2
2039-40           4.2
2040-41           4.3
2041-42           4.4
2042-43           4.4
2043-44           4.5
2044-45           4.6
2045-46           4.7
2046-47           4.8
2047-48           4.8
2048-49           4.9
2049-50           5.0
2050-51           5.1
2051-52           5.2
2052-53           5.3
2053-54           5.4
2054-55           5.5

[Return to main document]

Chart 2.14 Australian Government Age and Service pensions

Australian Government Age and Service Pension payments are projected to decrease from 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 2.7 per cent in 2054-55 under the proposed policy scenario . Under the current legislation scenario expenditure on Age and Service Pensions is expected to be higher over the entire projection period and reach 3.6 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.14 Australian Government Age and Service pensions
  Proposed policy Currently legislated
2014-15 2.9 2.9
2015-16 2.9 2.9
2016-17 2.9 2.9
2017-18 2.9 2.9
2018-19 2.8 2.9
2019-20 2.8 2.9
2020-21 2.7 2.8
2021-22 2.6 2.8
2022-23 2.6 2.8
2023-24 2.5 2.8
2024-25 2.5 2.8
2025-26 2.5 2.9
2026-27 2.5 2.9
2027-28 2.4 3.0
2028-29 2.4 3.0
2029-30 2.5 3.1
2030-31 2.5 3.1
2031-32 2.5 3.1
2032-33 2.5 3.1
2033-34 2.5 3.2
2034-35 2.5 3.2
2035-36 2.4 3.2
2036-37 2.5 3.2
2037-38 2.5 3.2
2038-39 2.5 3.3
2039-40 2.5 3.3
2040-41 2.5 3.3
2041-42 2.6 3.3
2042-43 2.6 3.4
2043-44 2.6 3.4
2044-45 2.6 3.4
2045-46 2.6 3.4
2046-47 2.6 3.4
2047-48 2.6 3.5
2048-49 2.6 3.5
2049-50 2.7 3.5
2050-51 2.7 3.5
2051-52 2.7 3.5
2052-53 2.7 3.6
2053-54 2.7 3.6
2054-55 2.7 3.6

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Chart 2.15 Male life expectancy and age pension age

Male life expectancy steadily increased since 1905, and is projected to continue inceasing throught to 2055. Up till now, the male age pension age has remained at 65 years. From 2017, it will be gradually increased to 70 years.

Note: Period life expectancies have been used for this chart to allow comparisons over time. Data is for the financial year ending June 30.

Source: Australian Government Actuary Life Tables, Treasury projections.

Data - Chart 2.15 Male life expectancy and age pension age
  Male life expectancy Age pension eligibility age for men
1905 55.20  
1906    
1907    
1908    
1909    
1910   65
1911   65
1912   65
1913   65
1914   65
1915   65
1916   65
1917   65
1918   65
1919   65
1920   65
1921 59.15 65
1922   65
1923   65
1924   65
1925   65
1926   65
1927   65
1928   65
1929   65
1930   65
1931   65
1932   65
1933 63.48 65
1934   65
1935   65
1936   65
1937   65
1938   65
1939   65
1940   65
1941   65
1942   65
1943   65
1944   65
1945   65
1946   65
1947 66.07 65
1948   65
1949   65
1950   65
1951   65
1952   65
1953   65
1954 67.14 65
1955   65
1956   65
1957   65
1958   65
1959   65
1960   65
1961 67.92 65
1962   65
1963   65
1964   65
1965   65
1966 67.63 65
1967   65
1968   65
1969   65
1970   65
1971 67.81 65
1972   65
1973   65
1974   65
1975   65
1976 69.56 65
1977   65
1978   65
1979   65
1980   65
1981 71.23 65
1982   65
1983   65
1984   65
1985   65
1986 72.74 65
1987   65
1988   65
1989   65
1990   65
1991 74.32 65
1992   65
1993   65
1994   65
1995   65
1996 75.69 65
1997   65
1998   65
1999   65
2000   65
2001 77.64 65
2002   65
2003   65
2004   65
2005   65
2006 79.02 65
2007   65
2008   65
2009   65
2010   65
2011 80.06 65
2012   65
2013   65
2014   65
2015 80.60 65
2016   65
2017   65
2018   66
2019   66
2020   66
2021   66
2022   67
2023   67
2024   67
2025 82.90 67
2026   68
2027   68
2028   68
2029   68
2030   69
2031   69
2032   69
2033   69
2034   70
2035 84.90 70
2036   70
2037   70
2038   70
2039   70
2040   70
2041   70
2042   70
2043   70
2044   70
2045 86.60 70
2046   70
2047   70
2048   70
2049   70
2050   70
2051   70
2052   70
2053   70
2054   70
2055 88.10 70

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Chart 2.16 Australian Government aged care spending

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, Commonwealth aged care expenditure is projected to rise from 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario aged care expenditure is projected to rise to 2.1 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.16 Australian Government aged care spending
  Proposed policy Previous policy
2014-15 0.9 0.9
2015-16 0.9 0.9
2016-17 0.9 1.0
2017-18 0.9 1.0
2018-19 1.0 1.0
2019-20 1.0 1.0
2020-21 1.0 1.1
2021-22 1.0 1.1
2022-23 1.1 1.1
2023-24 1.1 1.1
2024-25 1.1 1.2
2025-26 1.1 1.2
2026-27 1.1 1.2
2027-28 1.2 1.2
2028-29 1.2 1.3
2029-30 1.2 1.3
2030-31 1.2 1.3
2031-32 1.2 1.3
2032-33 1.2 1.3
2033-34 1.3 1.4
2034-35 1.3 1.4
2035-36 1.3 1.4
2036-37 1.3 1.4
2037-38 1.3 1.5
2038-39 1.3 1.5
2039-40 1.3 1.5
2040-41 1.3 1.5
2041-42 1.4 1.5
2042-43 1.4 1.6
2043-44 1.4 1.6
2044-45 1.4 1.6
2045-46 1.4 1.6
2046-47 1.4 1.7
2047-48 1.5 1.7
2048-49 1.5 1.7
2049-50 1.5 1.8
2050-51 1.5 1.8
2051-52 1.6 1.9
2052-53 1.6 1.9
2053-54 1.7 2.0
2054-55 1.7 2.1

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Chart 2.17 Composition of Australian Government payments to individuals

Spending on Australian Government payments to individuals (excluding the Age and Service Pensions) decreases as a proportion of GDP between 2014-15 and 2054-55 for all payments except for the group 'carer payments and Wife Pension'.

Note: Carer payments = Carer Allowance + Carer Payment.

This chart shows projections under the 'proposed policy' scenario.

Source: Treasury projections.

Data - Chart 2.17 Composition of Australian Government payments to individuals
  2014-15 2054-55
Family Tax Benefit 1.3 0.5
Disability Support Pension 1.1 1.0
Newstart Allowance 0.6 0.3
Child Care Benefit and Child Care Rebate 0.4 0.3
Carer payments and Wife Pension 0.5 0.8
Parenting Payment Single 0.3 0.1
Youth allowance and Austudy 0.3 0.1
Parenting Payment Partnered 0.1 0.0

[Return to main document]

Chart 2.18 Australian Government payments to individuals

Australian Government payments to individuals (excluding Age and Service Pensions and Paid Parental Leave) are projected to decrease from 4.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent of GDP under proposed policy. Under current legislation, expenditure on these payments is expected to be higher over the entire projection period and be 3.4 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.18 Australian Government payments to individuals
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 4.5 4.6 4.5
2015-16 4.3 4.5 4.4
2016-17 4.2 4.3 4.4
2017-18 4.0 4.2 4.3
2018-19 4.0 4.2 4.3
2019-20 3.9 4.2 4.2
2020-21 3.8 4.1 4.2
2021-22 3.8 4.1 4.2
2022-23 3.8 4.1 4.2
2023-24 3.8 4.1 4.1
2024-25 3.7 4.1 4.1
2025-26 3.7 4.1 4.1
2026-27 3.7 4.1 4.1
2027-28 3.6 4.1 4.1
2028-29 3.6 4.1 4.1
2029-30 3.6 4.0 4.1
2030-31 3.6 4.0 4.1
2031-32 3.6 4.0 4.0
2032-33 3.6 3.9 4.0
2033-34 3.6 3.9 3.9
2034-35 3.5 3.9 3.9
2035-36 3.5 3.9 3.9
2036-37 3.5 3.8 3.9
2037-38 3.5 3.8 3.8
2038-39 3.5 3.8 3.8
2039-40 3.4 3.7 3.8
2040-41 3.4 3.7 3.7
2041-42 3.4 3.7 3.7
2042-43 3.3 3.6 3.7
2043-44 3.3 3.6 3.6
2044-45 3.3 3.6 3.6
2045-46 3.3 3.6 3.6
2046-47 3.3 3.6 3.6
2047-48 3.3 3.6 3.6
2048-49 3.2 3.5 3.6
2049-50 3.2 3.5 3.6
2050-51 3.2 3.5 3.5
2051-52 3.2 3.5 3.5
2052-53 3.2 3.5 3.5
2053-54 3.2 3.5 3.5
2054-55 3.2 3.4 3.5

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Chart 2.19 Australian Government assistance to those of working age

Australian Government payments to those of workforce age is projected to decrease from 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 2.4 per cent in 2054-55 under proposed policy. Current legislation only is projected to have higher expenditure over the entire projection period and be 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.19 Australian Government assistance to those of working age
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 2.8 2.8 2.8
2015-16 2.7 2.8 2.7
2016-17 2.6 2.7 2.7
2017-18 2.6 2.6 2.6
2018-19 2.5 2.6 2.6
2019-20 2.5 2.6 2.6
2020-21 2.4 2.5 2.6
2021-22 2.4 2.6 2.6
2022-23 2.4 2.6 2.6
2023-24 2.4 2.6 2.6
2024-25 2.4 2.6 2.6
2025-26 2.4 2.6 2.7
2026-27 2.4 2.7 2.7
2027-28 2.4 2.7 2.7
2028-29 2.4 2.7 2.7
2029-30 2.4 2.7 2.7
2030-31 2.4 2.7 2.7
2031-32 2.4 2.7 2.7
2032-33 2.4 2.7 2.7
2033-34 2.4 2.6 2.7
2034-35 2.5 2.6 2.7
2035-36 2.5 2.6 2.7
2036-37 2.5 2.6 2.7
2037-38 2.5 2.6 2.7
2038-39 2.5 2.6 2.6
2039-40 2.5 2.6 2.6
2040-41 2.4 2.6 2.6
2041-42 2.4 2.6 2.6
2042-43 2.4 2.6 2.6
2043-44 2.4 2.6 2.6
2044-45 2.4 2.6 2.6
2045-46 2.4 2.6 2.6
2046-47 2.4 2.6 2.6
2047-48 2.4 2.6 2.6
2048-49 2.4 2.6 2.6
2049-50 2.4 2.6 2.6
2050-51 2.4 2.6 2.6
2051-52 2.4 2.6 2.6
2052-53 2.4 2.6 2.6
2053-54 2.4 2.6 2.6
2054-55 2.4 2.6 2.6

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Chart 2.20 Australian Government assistance to families per person (real 2014–15 dollars)

Australian Government payments to families is projected to decrease from 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 0.8 per cent in 2054-55 under proposed policy. Currently legislation only is projected to have higher expenditure over the entire projection period and be 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.20 Australian Government assistance to families per person (real 2014-15 dollars)
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014-15 1,182 1,204 1,182
2015-16 1,144 1,186 1,164
2016-17 1,100 1,185 1,186
2017-18 1,077 1,211 1,232
2018-19 1,104 1,241 1,262
2019-20 1,133 1,273 1,296
2020-21 1,161 1,306 1,329
2021-22 1,191 1,338 1,362
2022-23 1,220 1,371 1,395
2023-24 1,249 1,403 1,428
2024-25 1,277 1,435 1,460
2025-26 1,307 1,467 1,493
2026-27 1,335 1,499 1,525
2027-28 1,363 1,530 1,557
2028-29 1,393 1,563 1,591
2029-30 1,423 1,596 1,624
2030-31 1,451 1,627 1,656
2031-32 1,480 1,659 1,688
2032-33 1,510 1,693 1,723
2033-34 1,539 1,725 1,756
2034-35 1,569 1,758 1,789
2035-36 1,599 1,792 1,824
2036-37 1,630 1,827 1,859
2037-38 1,662 1,862 1,895
2038-39 1,694 1,899 1,932
2039-40 1,728 1,936 1,971
2040-41 1,763 1,976 2,011
2041-42 1,799 2,017 2,052
2042-43 1,837 2,059 2,096
2043-44 1,876 2,104 2,141
2044-45 1,917 2,150 2,188
2045-46 1,960 2,198 2,236
2046-47 2,004 2,248 2,287
2047-48 2,050 2,299 2,340
2048-49 2,097 2,352 2,394
2049-50 2,146 2,407 2,450
2050-51 2,197 2,464 2,507
2051-52 2,249 2,522 2,566
2052-53 2,302 2,582 2,627
2053-54 2,357 2,643 2,689
2054-55 2,412 2,705 2,752

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Chart 2.21 Australian Government Spending on Education and Training per person (real 2014–15 dollars)

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, total education spending per person will remain relatively constant between 2014-15 and 2054-55 at $1,200 in today's dollars. If we include lending, total spending in today's dollars increases from $1,500 to $1,900 per person.

Source: Treasury projections, 'proposed policy' scenario. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.21 Australian Government Spending on Education and Training per person (real 2014-15 dollars)
  Total education Total education plus loans
2014-15 1,181 1,528
2015-16 1,171 1,534
2016-17 1,159 1,571
2017-18 1,137 1,588
2018-19 1,142 1,621
2019-20 1,147 1,648
2020-21 1,153 1,668
2021-22 1,160 1,680
2022-23 1,167 1,689
2023-24 1,174 1,699
2024-25 1,180 1,708
2025-26 1,186 1,718
2026-27 1,192 1,728
2027-28 1,196 1,738
2028-29 1,201 1,747
2029-30 1,205 1,756
2030-31 1,208 1,765
2031-32 1,209 1,773
2032-33 1,211 1,783
2033-34 1,212 1,793
2034-35 1,212 1,801
2035-36 1,212 1,810
2036-37 1,210 1,818
2037-38 1,208 1,826
2038-39 1,206 1,834
2039-40 1,203 1,841
2040-41 1,200 1,847
2041-42 1,197 1,854
2042-43 1,195 1,860
2043-44 1,192 1,867
2044-45 1,189 1,873
2045-46 1,187 1,880
2046-47 1,185 1,886
2047-48 1,183 1,893
2048-49 1,181 1,901
2049-50 1,180 1,908
2050-51 1,179 1,915
2051-52 1,178 1,923
2052-53 1,178 1,931
2053-54 1,178 1,939
2054-55 1,177 1,947

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Chart 2.22 Total government NDIS spending

Total government spending on the NDIS is projected to be broadly stable at 1.1 per cent of GDP between 2019-2020 (when the roll-out is complete) and 2054-55. As a per cent of GDP, states and territory spending on the NDIS is projected to decrease from 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2019-20 to 0.3 per cent in 2054-55. The Australian Government's contribution is projected to to increase from 0.6 per cent of GDP in 2019-20 to 0.9 per cent in 2054-55.

Note: This chart shows projections under the 'proposed policy' scenario. There are no pending measures for this area of spending.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.22 Total government NDIS spending
  Australian Government States and Territories
2014-15 0.0 0.0
2015-16 0.0 0.0
2016-17 0.1 0.1
2017-18 0.3 0.3
2018-19 0.5 0.5
2019-20 0.6 0.5
2020-21 0.6 0.5
2021-22 0.6 0.5
2022-23 0.6 0.5
2023-24 0.6 0.5
2024-25 0.7 0.5
2025-26 0.7 0.4
2026-27 0.7 0.4
2027-28 0.7 0.4
2028-29 0.7 0.4
2029-30 0.7 0.4
2030-31 0.7 0.4
2031-32 0.7 0.4
2032-33 0.7 0.4
2033-34 0.8 0.4
2034-35 0.8 0.4
2035-36 0.8 0.4
2036-37 0.8 0.4
2037-38 0.8 0.4
2038-39 0.8 0.4
2039-40 0.8 0.4
2040-41 0.8 0.4
2041-42 0.8 0.3
2042-43 0.8 0.3
2043-44 0.8 0.3
2044-45 0.8 0.3
2045-46 0.8 0.3
2046-47 0.8 0.3
2047-48 0.8 0.3
2048-49 0.8 0.3
2049-50 0.8 0.3
2050-51 0.8 0.3
2051-52 0.9 0.3
2052-53 0.9 0.3
2053-54 0.9 0.3
2054-55 0.9 0.3

[Return to main document]

Chart 2.23 Projected tax–to–GDP ratio

This area chart shows the projected Australian Government tax receipts as a percentage of GDP from 2014-15 to 2054-55. The chart breaks up these tax receipts into two sub-categories: goods and services tax (GST) receipts and all other Australian Government tax receipts. Total Australian Government tax receipts grow from an estimated 22.0 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to a projected 23.9 per cent of GDP in 2020-21, after which it remains stable at 23.9 per cent of GDP. GST receipts comprise approximately 3.4 per cent of GDP throughout most of the period.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.23 Projected tax-to-GDP ratio
  Total tax excluding GST GST
2014-15 18.7 3.3
2015-16 19.0 3.4
2016-17 19.4 3.4
2017-18 19.6 3.4
2018-19 19.9 3.4
2019-20 20.3 3.4
2020-21 20.5 3.4
2021-22 20.5 3.4
2022-23 20.5 3.4
2023-24 20.5 3.4
2024-25 20.5 3.4
2025-26 20.5 3.4
2026-27 20.5 3.4
2027-28 20.5 3.4
2028-29 20.5 3.4
2029-30 20.5 3.4
2030-31 20.5 3.4
2031-32 20.5 3.4
2032-33 20.5 3.4
2033-34 20.5 3.4
2034-35 20.5 3.4
2035-36 20.5 3.4
2036-37 20.5 3.4
2037-38 20.5 3.4
2038-39 20.5 3.4
2039-40 20.5 3.4
2040-41 20.5 3.4
2041-42 20.5 3.4
2042-43 20.5 3.4
2043-44 20.5 3.4
2044-45 20.5 3.4
2045-46 20.5 3.4
2046-47 20.5 3.4
2047-48 20.5 3.4
2048-49 20.5 3.4
2049-50 20.5 3.4
2050-51 20.5 3.4
2051-52 20.5 3.4
2052-53 20.5 3.4
2053-54 20.5 3.4
2054-55 20.5 3.4

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Chart 2.24 Personal income tax rates and the effects of bracket creep

This chart shows the historical and projected impact of bracket creep on taxpayers. The chart shows the individual income tax thresholds for each year from 1994 95 to 2023-24. The chart also shows the historical and expected change in average weekly ordinary time earnings over the same period. Put together, the chart shows that the people earning average weekly ordinary time earnings generally face the second marginal individual income tax rate. The exceptions to this historically were 1998-99 and 1999-00, when people earning average weekly ordinary time earnings (around $39,000 and $40,000 respectively) faced the third marginal individual income tax rate. Based on the current individuals' income tax thresholds, people earning average weekly ordinary time earnings from 2016 17 are expected to have income over $80,000 and face the third marginal individual income tax rate.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6302.0 and Treasury calculations.

Data - Chart 2.24 Personal income tax rates and the effects of bracket creep
Average tax rate of full time employee earning
Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE)		   Full time employee earning (AWOTE) relative to personal income tax thresholds
Year   Average annual ordinary
full-time earnings (from AWOTE)		   Year   Thresholds
            1st threshold 2nd threshold 3rd threshold 4th threshold
1994-95 1995 33,000   1994-95 1995 5,400 20,700 38,000 50,000
1995-96 1996 35,000   1995-96 1996 5,400 20,700 38,000 50,000
1996-97 1997 36,000   1996-97 1997 5,400 20,700 38,000 50,000
1997-98 1998 37,000   1997-98 1998 5,400 20,700 38,000 50,000
1998-99 1999 39,000   1998-99 1999 5,400 20,700 38,000 50,000
1999-2000 2000 40,000   1999-2000 2000 5,400 20,700 38,000 50,000
2000-01 2001 42,000   2000-01 2001 6,000 20,000 50,000 60,000
2001-02 2002 44,000   2001-02 2002 6,000 20,000 50,000 60,000
2002-03 2003 47,000   2002-03 2003 6,000 20,000 50,000 60,000
2003-04 2004 49,000   2003-04 2004 6,000 21,600 52,000 62,500
2004-05 2005 51,000   2004-05 2005 6,000 21,600 58,000 70,000
2005-06 2006 53,000   2005-06 2006 6,000 21,600 63,000 95,000
2006-07 2007 55,000   2006-07 2007 6,000 25,000 75,000 150,000
2007-08 2008 58,000   2007-08 2008 6,000 30,000 75,000 150,000
2008-09 2009 61,000   2008-09 2009 6,000 34,000 80,000 180,000
2009-10 2010 65,000   2009-10 2010 6,000 35,000 80,000 180,000
2010-11 2011 67,000   2010-11 2011 6,000 37,000 80,000 180,000
2011-12 2012 70,000   2011-12 2012 6,000 37,000 80,000 180,000
2012-13 2013 73,000   2012-13 2013 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2013-14 2014 75,000   2013-14 2014 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2014-15 2015 77,000   2014-15 2015 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2015-16 2016 79,000   2015-16 2016 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2016-17 2017 81,000   2016-17 2017 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2017-18 2018 84,000   2017-18 2018 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2018-19 2019 86,000   2018-19 2019 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2019-20 2020 89,000   2019-20 2020 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2020-21 2021 93,000   2020-21 2021 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2021-22 2022 96,000   2021-22 2022 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2022-23 2023 100,000   2022-23 2023 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000
2023-24 2024 104,000   2023-24 2024 18,200 37,000 80,000 180,000

Note: Chart 2.24 is based on the data provided above.

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Chart 2.25 Historical composition of tax

Australia's tax mix as a per cent of GDP has not changed substantially over the last 40 years. Australia has continued to rely heavily on income taxes relative to indirect tax, with this reliance increasing over the last 10 years.

Source: Treasury.

  Personal income tax Corporate Indirect tax Capital gains tax
1973-74 9.2 3.2 5.7 0
1974-75 11 3.3 6.4 0
1975-76 11.2 3 6.9 0
1976-77 11.6 2.9 5.9 0
1977-78 11.7 3 5.8 0
1978-79 10.9 2.6 6.3 0
1979-80 11.3 2.5 6.6 0
1980-81 11.6 3.1 6.7 0
1981-82 12.2 2.9 6.5 0
1982-83 12.3 2.6 6.9 0
1983-84 11.7 2.1 7.2 0
1984-85 12.6 2.4 7.5 0
1985-86 12.8 2.4 7.5 0
1986-87 13.7 2.4 7.2 0
1987-88 13.4 2.7 7 0
1988-89 13.4 2.8 6.5 0
1989-90 12.9 3.2 6.3 0.1
1990-91 12.6 3.6 6 0.1
1991-92 11.5 3.6 5.4 0.1
1992-93 11.1 3.4 5.2 0.2
1993-94 11.3 3.1 5.5 0.1
1994-95 11.7 3.6 5.7 0.2
1995-96 12.1 3.8 5.7 0.3
1996-97 12.6 3.8 5.5 0.4
1997-98 12.7 3.5 5.5 0.6
1998-99 13 3.5 5.2 0.6
1999-00 13 3.9 5.3 0.8
2000-01 11.2 5 7.2 0.8
2001-02 11.5 4 7.1 0.6
2002-03 11.4 4.7 7.4 0.5
2003-04 11.4 4.8 7.2 0.5
2004-05 11.5 4.9 7.1 0.7
2005-06 11.3 5.1 6.7 1.1
2006-07 10.5 5.3 6.5 1.3
2007-08 10.1 5.6 6.4 1.6
2008-09 9.4 5.3 6 1.1
2009-10 9.2 4.3 6 0.6
2010-11 9.4 4.3 5.8 0.5
2011-12 10 4.9 5.5 0.4
2012-13 10.3 4.8 5.9 0.4
2013-14 10.4 4.5 6.1 0.5

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Chart 2.26 Expenditure on medical care and health expenses as a percentage of total household expenditure by age of reference person

Data from the Household Expenditure Survey shows that that expenditure on medical care and health expenses as a percentage of total household expenditure increases with the age of the household reference person. Based on the latest survey data available (2009-10), when the household reference person is aged 65 or above around 8.6 per cent of household expenditure is spent on medical care and health expenses. This percentage has increased over the years from around 5.1 per cent in 1988-89. For all households the percentage is much lower at around 4.1 per cent, down from around 3.3 per cent in 1988-89.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6530.0.

Data - Chart 2.26 Expenditure on medical care and health expenses as a percentage of total household expenditure by age of reference person
  1988‑89 1993‑94 2003‑04 2009‑10
15–24 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8
25–34 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.0
35–44 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.2
45–54 3.5 3.6 4.1 3.6
55–64 4.2 4.3 5.5 4.6
65+ 5.1 5.7 7.3 8.6
All 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.1

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Chart 2.27 Gross debt

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, gross debt is projected to fall from a projected peak of 26.1 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 to the assumed 13 per cent minimum by around the late 2020s, where it will remain over the rest of the projection period. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, gross debt is projected to rise to 61.8 per cent of GDP by 2054-55. Under the 'previous policy' scenario, gross debt is projected to reach 125.1 per cent of GDP by 2054-55.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.27 Gross debt
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014‑15 23.0 22.9 22.8
2015‑16 24.7 24.7 24.7
2016‑17 26.1 26.2 26.5
2017‑18 26.0 26.4 27.3
2018‑19 25.6 26.4 27.8
2019‑20 24.9 26.3 28.4
2020‑21 23.5 25.7 28.7
2021‑22 22.1 25.1 28.7
2022‑23 20.9 24.8 29.3
2023‑24 19.7 24.5 29.8
2024‑25 18.5 24.4 30.7
2025‑26 17.2 24.4 31.7
2026‑27 15.9 24.5 32.9
2027‑28 14.5 24.7 34.3
2028‑29 13.2 25.1 35.8
2029‑30 13.0 25.4 37.3
2030‑31 13.0 25.8 39.0
2031‑32 13.0 26.2 40.8
2032‑33 13.0 26.6 42.7
2033‑34 13.0 27.1 44.7
2034‑35 13.0 27.7 46.8
2035‑36 13.0 28.3 49.0
2036‑37 13.0 28.9 51.4
2037‑38 13.0 29.7 53.9
2038‑39 13.0 30.5 56.5
2039‑40 13.0 31.3 59.2
2040‑41 13.0 32.3 62.1
2041‑42 13.0 33.4 65.2
2042‑43 13.0 34.6 68.4
2043‑44 13.0 35.9 71.7
2044‑45 13.0 37.3 75.3
2045‑46 13.0 38.9 79.1
2046‑47 13.0 40.6 83.0
2047‑48 13.0 42.4 87.2
2048‑49 13.0 44.6 91.9
2049‑50 13.0 47.0 96.7
2050‑51 13.0 49.6 101.9
2051‑52 13.0 52.4 107.3
2052‑53 13.0 55.3 113.0
2053‑54 13.0 58.5 118.9
2054‑55 13.0 61.8 125.1

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Chart 2.28 Net interest payments (2014–15 dollars)

Under the 'proposed policy' scenario, net interest payments are projected to fall overtime, and reaching annual net interest receipts of $22.3 billion (in today's dollars) by 2054-55. Under the 'currently legislated' scenario, net interest payments are projected to reach $157.6 billion (in today's dollars) by 2054-55. This is an improvement compared to $323.6 billion (in today's dollars) under the 'previous policy' scenario.

Source: Treasury projections. Projections assume trend economic growth from 2021–22 to 2054–55.

Data - Chart 2.28 Net interest payments (2014-15 dollars)
  $billions
  Proposed policy Currently legislated Previous policy
2014‑15 10.8 10.7 10.7
2015‑16 11.0 11.1 11.1
2016‑17 11.5 11.7 11.8
2017‑18 11.8 12.2 12.6
2018‑19 11.8 12.6 13.5
2019‑20 11.4 12.9 14.3
2020‑21 10.9 13.4 15.7
2021‑22 10.4 13.7 16.7
2022‑23 11.1 15.4 19.5
2023‑24 11.0 16.6 21.7
2024‑25 11.1 18.3 24.8
2025‑26 10.9 20.1 28.1
2026‑27 10.6 21.8 31.5
2027‑28 10.2 23.9 35.6
2028‑29 9.6 26.0 39.6
2029‑30 10.1 27.8 43.6
2030‑31 9.6 29.9 48.2
2031‑32 8.6 31.8 52.6
2032‑33 7.6 34.0 57.6
2033‑34 6.3 36.0 62.7
2034‑35 5.0 38.1 68.1
2035‑36 3.7 40.9 74.5
2036‑37 2.3 43.5 80.9
2037‑38 0.6 46.1 87.5
2038‑39 ‑ 1.2 48.9 94.6
2039‑40 ‑ 3.0 52.0 102.1
2040‑41 ‑ 4.5 56.0 111.6
2041‑42 ‑ 6.3 59.7 120.4
2042‑43 ‑ 8.2 63.6 129.9
2043‑44 ‑ 10.0 67.9 140.0
2044‑45 ‑ 11.8 72.7 150.9
2045‑46 ‑ 13.3 78.7 164.3
2046‑47 ‑ 15.0 84.3 176.9
2047‑48 ‑ 16.7 90.6 190.5
2048‑49 ‑ 18.3 97.9 205.6
2049‑50 ‑ 19.6 105.6 221.5
2050‑51 ‑ 20.3 115.3 241.1
2051‑52 ‑ 21.2 124.5 259.6
2052‑53 ‑ 21.8 134.6 279.4
2053‑54 ‑ 22.2 145.6 300.7
2054‑55 ‑ 22.3 157.6 323.6

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Chart 2.29 Defined benefit unfunded superannuation liabilities

Defined benefit superannuation liabilities is projected to be around $163 billion in 2014-15 and $214 billion in 2054-55.

Defined benefit superannuation liabilities is projected to decline as a proportion of GDP, falling from 10.2 per cent in 2014-15 to 1.7 per cent in 2054-55.

Source: The Australian Government Actuary.

Data - Chart 2.29 Defined benefit unfunded superannuation liabilities
  Defined benefit super liabilities, $billion
2014‑15 163
2019‑20 193
2024‑25 222
2029‑30 247
2034‑35 265
2039‑40 272
2044‑45 264
2049‑50 242
2054‑55 214

 

Data - Chart 2.29c
  Defined benefit super liabilities, per cent of GDP
2014‑15 10.2
2015‑16 10.1
2016‑17 9.9
2017‑18 9.8
2018‑19 9.6
2019‑20 9.4
2020‑21 9.1
2021‑22 8.9
2022‑23 8.7
2023‑24 8.4
2024‑25 8.2
2025‑26 8.0
2026‑27 7.7
2027‑28 7.5
2028‑29 7.3
2029‑30 7.0
2030‑31 6.8
2031‑32 6.5
2032‑33 6.3
2033‑34 6.0
2034‑35 5.8
2035‑36 5.6
2036‑37 5.3
2037‑38 5.1
2038‑39 4.8
2039‑40 4.6
2040‑41 4.4
2041‑42 4.1
2042‑43 3.9
2043‑44 3.7
2044‑45 3.5
2045‑46 3.2
2046‑47 3.0
2047‑48 2.8
2048‑49 2.7
2049‑50 2.5
2050‑51 2.3
2051‑52 2.2
2052‑53 2.0
2053‑54 1.9
2054‑55 1.7

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