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Appendix A: Projections summary

Date
Table A.1 Economic and fiscal projections
  2014-15 2024-25 2034-35 2044-45 2054-55
Economic projections          
Real GDP growth (%) 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.3
Real GDP per person ($) 67,800 79,500 91,500 106,400 121,900
Real GDP per person growth (%) 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3
Real GNI per person ($) 66,400 76,100 87,900 102,300 117,300
Real GNI per person growth (%) -1.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3
Total participation rate 15-64 (%) 76.2 78.2 78.8 79.1 79.3
Total participation rate 15+ (%) 64.6 64.9 64.0 63.4 62.4
Male 15+ 70.8 70.7 69.8 69.1 68.1
Female 15+ 58.5 59.1 58.4 57.7 56.8
Fiscal projections (% of GDP) (a)          
Underlying cash balance -2.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.5
Primary balance -1.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.0
Net debt 15.2 6.7 -4.0 -13.2 -15.0
Net financial worth -21.6 -5.4 10.4 23.0 27.7
Net worth -14.3 1.3 17.3 30.0 34.8

(a)  Based on the 'proposed policy' scenario.

Source: Treasury projections.

Table A.2 Demographic projections
  2014-15 2024-25 2034-35 2044-45 2054-55
Population (millions) 23.9 28.0 32.0 35.8 39.7
0-14 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.9
15-64 15.8 17.8 19.9 22.1 23.8
65-84 3.1 4.3 5.2 5.9 7.0
85 and over 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9
Life expectancy at birth (years) (a)          
Male 91.5 92.6 93.5 94.4 95.1
Female 93.6 94.5 95.3 96.0 96.6
Total fertility rate 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Dependency ratio (b) 4.5 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.7
Net overseas migration (% total population) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

(a)  Life expectancy figures are calculated using the cohort method.

(b)  The dependency ratio refers to the number of people of traditional working age (15–64) for every person over 65. These figures use year average population numbers rather than end of year population numbers.

Source: Treasury projections.

Table A.3 Projections of major components of Australian Government spending (per cent of GDP)
  2014-15 2024-25 2034-35 2044-45 2054-55
Health 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5
Aged care 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7
Age and Service Pensions 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7
Other income support          
Disability Support Pension 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Assistance to families          
Family Tax Benefit 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5
Child Care Benefit and Rebate 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Parenting Payment Single 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Newstart Allowance 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Youth Allowance and Austudy 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Carers Payments and Wife Pension 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
Parenting Payment Partnered 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total other income support 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2
Education          
Schools 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Tertiary Education(a) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
Total education 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0
National Disability Insurance Scheme 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Public Sector Superannuation(b) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2
Defence 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Total modelled payments 19.8 19.4 19.2 19.5 20.4
Total payments 25.9 25.0 24.6 25.0 25.9
Total payments (excluding interest) 25.0 24.1 23.9 24.2 25.1

(a)  Includes Higher Education and Vocational Education and Training. These figures do not take into account the significant increase in lending to students through the higher education and vocational educat
ion and training loan schemes.

(b)  Refers to the government's superannuation spending associated with the public sector defined benefit schemes. The projections of public sector superannuation payments are from the 2011 Long Term Cost Report. The Report relies on economic assumptions which differ slightly from those underpinning this report. The impact of this inconsistency on the above proportions is not considered to be material.

Figures may not add due to rounding.

Source: Treasury projections.

Table A.4 Projections of major components of Australian Government spending (real spending per person, 2014-15 dollars)
  2014-15 2024-25 2034-35 2044-45 2054-55
Health 2,800 3,000 3,500 4,700 6,500
Aged care 620 830 1,100 1,400 2,000
Age and Service Pensions 2,000 1,900 2,200 2,700 3,200
Other income support          
Disability Support Pension 710 700 830 980 1,200
Assistance to families          
Family Tax Benefit 900 660 630 600 590
Child Care Benefit and Rebate 280 330 320 310 310
Parenting Payment Single 190 150 150 140 140
Newstart Allowance 410 310 340 340 350
Youth Allowance and Austudy 190 160 160 160 160
Carers Payments and Wife Pension 320 470 630 780 940
Parenting Payment Partnered 40 30 30 30 30
Total other income support 3,100 2,800 3,100 3,400 3,700
Education          
Schools 660 710 720 700 690
Tertiary Education(a) 530 470 490 490 480
Total education 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
National Disability Insurance Scheme 20 500 670 840 1,000
Public Sector Superannuation(b) 280 290 300 290 230
Defence 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,000 2,300
Total modelled payments 13,500 14,800 16,800 19,900 23,900
Total payments 17,600 19,000 21,600 25,400 30,300
Total payments (excluding interest) 17,000 18,300 20,900 24,600 29,400

(a) Includes Higher Education and Vocational Education and Training. These figures do not take into account the significant increase in lending to students through the higher education and vocational education and training loan schemes.

(b) Refers to the government's superannuation spending associated with the public sector defined benefit schemes. The projections of public sector superannuation payments are from the 2011 Long Term Cost Report. The Report relies on economic assumptions which differ slightly from those underpinning this report. The impact of this inconsistency on the above proportions is not considered to be material.

Figures may not add due to rounding.

Source: Treasury projections.