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Projections of Housing Demand in Australia, 2008-2038: Housing Needs of Older Australians Narrative Report

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This report was prepared for National Housing Supply Council. It is not a Treasury report.

The National Housing Supply Council commissioned latent demand projections for the 2008 and 2010 State of Supply Report from Professor Peter McDonald and Dr Jeromey Temple of the Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute (ADSRI), the Australian National University.

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Background

In addition to the underlying demographic process of fertility, mortality and migration, cohort effects ripple across time, influencing the propensity to marry, divorce and family formation more generally. This combination, in turn, influences living arrangements in the later life course. Until recently, projections of spatial variations in elderly living arrangements and households in Australia have been limited due to modelling complexity and data limitations (Rowland, 1997). The results herein, present projections of older persons households and demand for dwellings across 15 separate geographies using the net transition probability method.

This report provides a narrative description of results of the projection of future housing demand in the capital cities and balances of state for the eight States and Territories of Australia for the period, 2008-38.

This report focuses on the projection results for three groups of older Australians: (1.) aged 65-74, (2.) aged 75-84 and (3.) aged 85 years and over. The baseline housing data for the projections is obtained from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing and the baseline Estimated Resident Population data is from 30 June 2008.

Projection Methodology

The overview of the detailed projections methodology is given elsewhere (Temple and McDonald, 2009; McDonald, Kippen and Temple, 2007). However, in interpreting the following results regarding older persons demand for dwellings, several key points require reiteration:

  • The projections are demand-side projections, with no account given to availability of land, the number of vacant dwellings, construction of new dwellings and affordability.
  • The projections utilize the dwelling and tenure ‘preferences’ by age as estimated from the 2006 Australian Census of Population and Housing. Future cohorts, of course, may have very different preferences for types of dwellings, as well as facing very different pricing constraints etc.
  • The usual caveat with demographic projections applies: results present a possible future based upon a restricted set of assumptions. There are exogenous policy shocks that may affect the utility of belonging to different living arrangements in the later life course. For example, American studies have shown that increases in income and social security payments as well as reforms to nursing home subsidies have given rise to a higher demand for independent living (McGarry and Schoeni, 2000; Costa, 1997; Hoerger, Picone and Sloan, 1996). Engelhardt, Gruber and Perry (2002) estimate that a 10% cut in social security in America would create a movement of 600,000 lone persons moving into shared living arrangements. Likewise, changes in Australian social and economic policy could hasten the transition probabilities toward living independently. But as data extracted from HaPPE shows, the proportion living in non private dwellings is relatively small in Australia, until advanced old age. This is consistent with the Australian government’s policy of ageing in place, promoting independent living through community care services (Bishop, 1999). Although community care partially offsets government funded residential services, many carers and their employers bear a heavy financial and social cost given foregone time spent in the labour market, leisure and other activities (Rubin, 2002). Transition probabilities for independent living may be effected by the availability and public support for carers. Another factor that may effect the transition probabilities, particularly in the earlier life cycle, is housing prices (McDonald and Temple, 2004). However, in old age there is little evidence to suggest that living arrangement decisions are made on the basis of house prices, with the major determinants being demographic (Börsch-Supan, 1989).

Given these limitations, how should the results be interpreted and considered:

  • Our approach is to project housing demand on the basis of current and recent trends in demand inputs. These demand projections should then be assessed in supply terms, that is, the results from the projections of demand for housing can be compared with existing and planned supply of housing and assessments made of what corrections for demand-supply discrepancies need to be made. Where meeting demand would create supply difficulties, consideration would need to be given to how this demand is re-directed. Do the projected households maintain their dwelling preference but change their location or do they change their dwelling preference within the location. The fact that supply cannot meet housing preferences could also conceivably lead to the household not being formed at all.
  • Our method of projecting living arrangements and households has a number of advantages, particularly with reference to older persons. Firstly, this model has captured regional level heterogeneity in the compositional aspects of populations through using region specific estimates and projections of fertility, mortality, migration and living arrangement transitions. Second, providing strong support for this model, the net transition probabilities estimated from the 1991, 1996 and 2001 Australian Census of Population and Housing are highly comparable. Moreover, re-estimating the model using historical data shows the projections produced from the model to be highly reliable (McDonald and Temple, 2003). Additional comparisons show that in the majority of cases, the tempo of the age specific transition probabilities is highly consistent, although the quantum, as one would expect, differs considerably across the regions. Finally, by building upon the usual headship or propensity type models, the net transition approach specifically tracks cohort differences in living arrangement transitions.

Household Growth

Tables 1 – 3 display the projected growth in households between 2008-2023 and 2023-38 for age groups 65-74, 75-84 and 85 years and over respectively. The projection results are for the medium scenario (Scenario number 9 in HaPPE). The two main household types in older age (couples with no children and lone persons) are shown in addition to other living arrangement types. The number of households is shown in addition to the household growth for two time periods, 2008-2023 and 2023-2028. The household growth measures are ratios expressing the differing speeds of growth across the time periods. For example, between 2008 and 2023, the number of couple only households in Sydney (NSWCC), grew by 1.58 times compared to 1.42 times in the second period.

Table 1. Growth in households by type, household reference person aged 65-74, Medium Scenario.
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Couples, no children 67491 1.60 1.17
  Lone person 46478 1.88 1.34
  Other 26922 1.50 1.20
NSWB Couples, no children 65400 1.39 1.05
  Lone person 42474 2.28 1.31
  Other 13892 1.62 1.16
VICCC Couples, no children 65706 1.54 1.18
  Lone person 42614 2.07 1.54
  Other 24364 1.64 1.31
VICB Couples, no children 33841 1.65 1.02
  Lone person 23032 2.35 1.33
  Other 6843 1.65 1.16
QLDCC Couples, no children 29176 1.82 1.25
  Lone person 18773 2.28 1.44
  Other 8327 1.80 1.34
QLDB Couples, no children 49552 1.92 1.31
  Lone person 31963 2.53 1.56
  Other 10763 1.88 1.37
SACC Couples, no children 24327 1.46 1.03
  Lone person 16357 2.00 1.31
  Other 6041 1.34 1.22
SAB Couples, no children 11232 1.60 1.03
  Lone person 6447 2.51 1.43
  Other 1720 1.60 1.20
WACC Couples, no children 28055 1.87 1.22
  Lone person 18698 2.52 1.47
  Other 6352 1.88 1.35
WAB Couples, no children 11848 1.94 1.23
  Lone person 7434 3.04 1.58
  Other 1946 1.94 1.41
TASCC Couples, no children 4132 1.69 1.05
  Lone person 3272 2.16 1.16
  Other 941 1.61 1.08
TASB Couples, no children 6972 1.62 0.99
  Lone person 4990 2.19 1.28
  Other 1323 1.55 1.17
NT Couples, no children 1249 3.02 1.27
  Lone person 1720 2.94 1.56
  Other 823 2.13 1.30
ACT Couples, no children 5195 1.77 1.06
  Lone person 3309 2.34 1.23
  Other 1360 1.84 1.13
SEQ Couples, no children 53436 1.88 1.30
  Lone person 33639 2.41 1.47
  Other 13212 1.86 1.37
Table 2. Growth in households by type, household reference person aged 75-84
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Couples, no children 31518 1.58 1.42
  Lone person 61060 1.35 1.64
  Other 16687 1.36 1.42
NSWB Couples, no children 28115 1.65 1.42
  Lone person 52687 1.52 1.92
  Other 10124 1.40 1.52
VICCC Couples, no children 29593 1.63 1.34
  Lone person 58039 1.39 1.77
  Other 14487 1.57 1.55
VICB Couples, no children 14574 1.64 1.40
  Lone person 29802 1.44 1.93
  Other 5033 1.43 1.46
QLDCC Couples, no children 12130 1.76 1.42
  Lone person 23401 1.55 1.63
  Other 5704 1.53 1.48
QLDB Couples, no children 18910 2.07 1.64
  Lone person 34655 1.93 2.03
  Other 6915 1.78 1.61
SACC Couples, no children 2852 1.13 1.31
  Lone person 11927 1.39 1.27
  Other 25452 1.29 1.62
SAB Couples, no children 4397 1.74 1.40
  Lone person 8749 1.60 1.90
  Other 1142 1.49 1.44
WACC Couples, no children 11751 1.77 1.48
  Lone person 22584 1.66 1.78
  Other 3965 1.61 1.56
WAB Couples, no children 4169 2.16 1.69
  Lone person 7732 2.10 2.36
  Other 1214 1.82 1.70
TASCC Couples, no children 1875 1.69 1.44
  Lone person 4070 1.48 1.68
  Other 719 1.25 1.49
TASB Couples, no children 2619 1.86 1.37
  Lone person 5526 1.55 1.84
  Other 841 1.46 1.46
NT Couples, no children 255 3.69 1.93
  Lone person 751 3.12 2.34
  Other 312 2.27 1.86
ACT Couples, no children 2150 2.13 1.34
  Lone person 3653 1.78 1.61
  Other 754 1.47 1.58
SEQ Couples, no children 22311 1.84 1.48
  Lone person 40475 1.70 1.74
  Other 9024 1.61 1.52
Table 3. Growth in households by type, household reference person aged 85+
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Couples, no children 4512 1.67 1.87
  Lone person 27242 1.30 2.00
  Other 6405 1.55 1.49
NSWB Couples, no children 3271 2.03 1.79
  Lone person 19384 1.59 2.17
  Other 3911 1.93 1.51
VICCC Couples, no children 3800 1.86 1.78
  Lone person 23225 1.46 2.02
  Other 5272 1.87 1.63
VICB Couples, no children 1711 1.73 1.92
  Lone person 11105 1.48 2.23
  Other 1939 1.93 1.57
QLDCC Couples, no children 1698 1.59 2.06
  Lone person 9886 1.28 2.32
  Other 2391 1.53 1.74
QLDB Couples, no children 2356 2.05 2.21
  Lone person 12601 1.75 2.60
  Other 2865 1.98 1.84
SACC Couples, no children 1323 1.56 1.25
  Lone person 1643 1.59 1.70
  Other 10619 1.23 1.97
SAB Couples, no children 504 1.99 1.91
  Lone person 3253 1.62 2.31
  Other 418 2.09 1.61
WACC Couples, no children 1519 1.82 1.99
  Lone person 9199 1.50 2.36
  Other 1698 1.73 1.72
WAB Couples, no children 421 2.64 2.28
  Lone person 2565 2.20 2.84
  Other 462 2.75 1.90
TASCC Couples, no children 260 2.35 1.88
  Lone person 1606 1.50 2.17
  Other 289 1.59 1.52
TASB Couples, no children 297 2.08 1.92
  Lone person 2204 1.37 2.22
  Other 339 1.83 1.52
NT Couples, no children 23 2.61 4.38
  Lone person 125 2.53 3.80
  Other 86 2.76 2.78
ACT Couples, no children 287 2.39 2.22
  Lone person 1476 1.58 2.60
  Other 324 1.82 2.00
SEQ Couples, no children 3057 1.72 2.10
  Lone person 16566 1.45 2.42
  Other 3786 1.69 1.79

This simple example underscores a key result across this, and other tables; that is, the differential speed of ‘ageing of the aged’. Across the tables for the youngest age group, the growth in households is much greater between 2008 and 2028, when compared to the later time period. However, for the second age group (75-84), this difference is reduced and for the oldest age group, household growth is considerably greater in the second time period when compared to the first for many regions. This result, undoubtedly, is driven primarily by increases in longevity, but also by cohort flow and migration.

For the first time period, growth is quite strong for lone person house
holds in WAB and NT, all growing by about between 3 and 4 times during this time period. For couple only households, the fastest growers were in the Northern Territory (3.02), QLDB (1.92) and WAB (1.94). The list of top growth rates for this first time period is dominated predominately by lone person households. For the second time period, the strongest growing group is lone person households in WA, NT, QLDB and VICCC growing by at least 1.5 times in the period 2023-2038.

Again, the NT, WAB and QLDB populations figure strongly in the fastest growing household types in the two older age groups. The number of couple only households is projected to increase by 3.69 times in the NT between 2008-23 and by 1.93 times for the period 2023-2038 for 75-84 year olds.

As noted above, cohort flow has a significant effect on the projected growth rates. An excellent example is the projected number of lone persons aged 85 and over in QLDCC. In the first time period, this population grows by just 1.23 times (the second lowest growth rate). However, in the second time period, the number of lone persons grows by about 2.3 times (ranked within the top quarter of growth rates). This result underscores the importance of considering (1.) cohort flow, (2.) differential migration, and (3.) the importance of adopting regional level household classification type propensities and living arrangement transition probabilities.

Dwelling Demand Growth

With the underlying population and household projection complete, the demand for dwellings and tenure are projected based upon the preferences of the current cohort of aged persons (from the Census). A very detailed table which cross-references a household reference persons’ household type X age X dwelling type X tenure is used to estimate the underlying region specific propensities. This same cross sectional table is applied forward to the projections from 2008 to 2038.

Table 4. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 65-74
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 96164 1.64 1.22
  Semi-detached 16103 1.70 1.26
  Flat 27406 1.74 1.28
NSWB Separate house 100047 1.77 1.16
  Semi-detached 8701 1.92 1.21
  Flat 9224 2.06 1.26
VICCC Separate house 101514 1.69 1.31
  Semi-detached 13940 1.81 1.39
  Flat 16484 1.89 1.45
VICB Separate house 55765 1.87 1.16
  Semi-detached 2356 2.09 1.25
  Flat 4543 2.16 1.27
QLDCC Separate house 44391 1.94 1.32
  Semi-detached 4283 2.06 1.37
  Flat 6598 2.14 1.40
QLDB Separate house 70157 2.08 1.40
  Semi-detached 8573 2.20 1.45
  Flat 10501 2.29 1.48
SACC Separate house 35572 1.68 1.14
  Semi-detached 6231 1.84 1.21
  Flat 4735 1.94 1.25
SAB Separate house 16849 1.87 1.20
  Semi-detached 1308 2.08 1.30
  Flat 932 2.25 1.35
WACC Separate house 40053 2.05 1.32
  Semi-detached 7288 2.24 1.39
  Flat 5129 2.32 1.41
WAB Separate house 17398 2.33 1.38
  Semi-detached 1739 2.58 1.46
  Flat 1240 2.73 1.50
TASCC Separate house 7346 1.85 1.10
  Semi-detached 281 1.97 1.13
  Flat 598 1.97 1.13
TASB Separate house 11713 1.83 1.12
  Semi-detached 444 1.98 1.18
  Flat 942 1.97 1.19
NT Separate house 2326 2.72 1.37
  Semi-detached 557 2.89 1.48
  Flat 659 2.88 1.49
ACT Separate house 7718 1.94 1.13
  Semi-detached 1426 2.09 1.18
  Flat 691 2.14 1.19
SEQ Separate house 77693 2.03 1.36
  Semi-detached 9801 2.11 1.39
  Flat 11288 2.18 1.41
Table 5. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 75-84
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 77177 1.42 1.53
  Semi-detached 11845 1.42 1.54
  Flat 19378 1.41 1.55
NSWB Separate house 75191 1.55 1.71
  Semi-detached 6489 1.57 1.68
  Flat 6926 1.55 1.77
VICCC Separate house 77620 1.49 1.59
  Semi-detached 11686 1.49 1.59
  Flat 12409 1.46 1.63
VICB Separate house 43481 1.52 1.72
  Semi-detached 1810 1.52 1.73
  Flat 3476 1.52 1.76
QLDCC Separate house 32976 1.70 1.60
  Semi-detached 3209 1.72 1.60
  Flat 4487 1.69 1.63
QLDB Separate house 45846 1.95 1.85
  Semi-detached 5943 1.97 1.84
  Flat 6961 1.96 1.89
SACC Separate house 30229 1.37 1.54
  Semi-detached 5499 1.38 1.54
  Flat 4142 1.37 1.57
SAB Separate house 12226 1.66 1.71
  Semi-detached 1147 1.65 1.76
  Flat 799 1.66 1.76
WACC Separate house 28054 1.83 1.75
  Semi-detached 6001 1.83 1.76
  Flat 3976 1.83 1.78
WAB Separate house 10692 2.14 2.12
  Semi-detached 1147 2.16 2.12
  Flat 900 2.16 2.14
TASCC Separate house 5649 1.55 1.62
  Semi-detached 303 1.56 1.64
  Flat 687 1.55 1.65
TASB Separate house 7611 1.65 1.66
  Semi-detached 410 1.65 1.70
  Flat 932 1.63 1.73
NT Separate house 856 3.06 2.18
  Semi-detached 185 3.23 2.27
  Flat 202 3.22 2.25
ACT Separate house 5238 1.89 1.53
  Semi-detached 965 1.91 1.53
  Flat 354 1.88 1.56
SEQ Separate house 53765 1.81 1.68
  Semi-detached 8301 1.83 1.68
  Flat 8848 1.82 1.71
Table 6. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 85+
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 26378 1.39 1.88
  Semi-detached 4268 1.39 1.89
  Flat 7329 1.39 1.91
NSWB Separate house 21722 1.69 2.00
  Semi-detached 2112 1.71 2.01
  Flat 2295 1.68 2.04
VICCC Separate house 23900 1.58 1.91
  Semi-detached 4078 1.59 1.92
  Flat 4242 1.57 1.93
VICB Separate house 12741 1.59 2.09
  Semi-detached 736 1.56 2.14
  Flat 1176 1.56 2.14
QLDCC Separate house 11275 1.44 2.25
  Semi-detached 1285 1.45 2.30
  Flat 1332 1.43 2.29
QLDB Separate house 13392 1.82 2.40
  Semi-detached 1849 1.85 2.41
  Flat 2271 1.82 2.46
SACC Separate house 10023 1.38 1.91
  Semi-detached 1948 1.39 1.93
  Flat 1480 1.38 1.94
SAB Separate house 3559 1.74 2.19
  Semi-detached 267 1.75 2.18
  Flat 326 1.72 2.24
WACC Separate house 8876 1.70 2.32
  Semi-detached 2118 1.71 2.35
  Flat 1383 1.69 2.38
WAB Separate house 2881 2.39 2.66
  Semi-detached 275 2.40 2.64
  Flat 208 2.39 2.67
TASCC Separate house 1797 1.65 2.07
  Semi-detached 102 1.74 2.10
  Flat 250 1.66 2.13
TASB Separate house 2366 1.52 2.09
  Semi-detached 134 1.56 2.14
  Flat 332 1.50 2.16
NT Separate house 176 2.70 3.50
  Semi-detached 28 2.68 3.58
  Flat 28 2.73 3.58
ACT Separate house 1512 1.75 2.46
  Semi-detached 314 1.78 2.49
  Flat 261 1.76 2.51
SEQ Separate house 17218 1.60 2.31
  Semi-detached 2917 1.60 2.35
  Flat 3059 1.59 2.38

Tables 4 – 6 display the projected growth in dwelling demand between 2008-2023 and 2023-38 for age groups 65-74, 75-84 and 85 years and over respectively. As with the household growth data, QLDB, NT and WAB feature strongly among the fastest growers in the first period. For example, in WAB, the demand for flats among 65-74 year olds is projected to rise by 2.73 times in 2008-23 and a further 1.5 times in the second time period.

In interpreting the data from HaPPE, in addition to interpreting the growth rates and timing effects, it is also important to consider the quantum or raw numerical effects. A good example is comparing QLDB with NT. The demand for separate houses in NT headed by 75-84 year olds is projected to grow by 3.23 times in the first time period, being the fastest growing dwelling type across all regions. QLDB grows only by about 1.95 times over the same period. However, in terms of the real demand for additional dwellings built on the ground, the effect is obviously much stronger for QLDB. In 2008, there was just 856 households headed by persons 75-84 living in separate house dwellings compared to 45,846 such households in QLDB. This notion is again supported looking at some of the lowest growth areas. For example, demand for separate houses in NSWCC is projected to grow by 1.42 times over the first time period, however this is based on a baseline figure of 77,177 households headed by a person 75-84.

Tenure Demand Growth

Tables 7 – 9 display the projected growth in dwellings by tenure between 2008-2023 and 2023-38 for age groups 65-74, 75-84 and 85 years and over respectively.

Of interesting note, are the regions with high demand for public housing. For 65-74 year olds, the top 5 areas of demand between 2008-2023 are NT (2.8), WAB (2.68), QLDB (2.32), WACC (2.32) and SEQ (2.2). For the oldest age group, the top five comparative regions are NT (2.55), WAB (2.34), QLDB (1.79), WACC (1.67). For this older age group, demand is much higher for public housing (as detailed previously) in the second period, but again it is important to note that some of these populations are relatively small in size.

Table 7. Growth in dwellings by tenure, household reference person aged 65-74
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Owner/purchaser 113521 1.66 1.23
  Public rental 11318 1.75 1.29
  Private rental 14411 1.70 1.26
  Other 1641 1.71 1.26
NSWB Owner/purchaser 102556 1.78 1.16
  Public rental 5530 2.02 1.25
  Private rental 11617 1.98 1.24
  Other 2063 1.94 1.22
VICCC Owner/purchaser 113602 1.71 1.32
  Public rental 5625 1.92 1.47
  Private rental 12002 1.84 1.42
  Other 1456 1.81 1.40
VICB Owner/purchaser 54551 1.87 1.16
  Public rental 2545 2.16 1.28
  Private rental 5593 2.06 1.24
  Other 1027 2.02 1.22
QLDCC Owner/purchaser 45415 1.95 1.32
  Public rental 3412 2.13 1.40
  Private rental 6816 2.05 1.37
  Other 633 2.06 1.37
QLDB Owner/purchaser 74634 2.10 1.40
  Public rental 3553 2.32 1.50
  Private rental 12205 2.22 1.46
  Other 1885 2.22 1.46
SACC Owner/purchaser 37757 1.69 1.14
  Public rental 4745 1.90 1.25
  Private rental 3720 1.85 1.22
  Other 502 1.81 1.20
SAB Owner/purchaser 15954 1.86 1.19
  Public rental 1443 2.18 1.34
  Private rental 1595 2.05 1.29
  Other 406 2.02 1.27
WACC Owner/purchaser 43155 2.07 1.32
  Public rental 3594 2.32 1.42
  Private rental 5709 2.22 1.39
  Other 647 2.21 1.38
WAB Owner/purchaser 16888 2.33 1.38
  Public rental 1462 2.68 1.50
  Private rental 2313 2.53 1.46
  Other 566 2.54 1.45
TASCC Owner/purchaser 6815 1.83 1.10
  Public rental 533 2.04 1.14
  Private rental 930 2.00 1.13
  Other 68 1.95 1.12
TASB Owner/purchaser 10902 1.81 1.11
  Public rental 824 2.06 1.23
  Private rental 1450 2.02 1.21
  Other 109 1.96 1.16
NT Owner/purchaser 2153 2.84 1.39
  Public rental 811 2.80 1.50
  Private rental 705 2.59 1.39
  Other 123 2.85 1.41
ACT Owner/purchaser 8124 1.95 1.13
  Public rental 1118 2.16 1.20
  Private rental 539 1.99 1.15
  Other 83 2.20 1.21
SEQ Owner/purchaser 79478 2.02 1.36
  Public rental 3965 2.20 1.42
  Private rental 15711 2.19 1.42
  Other 1133 2.11 1.39
Table 8. Growth in dwellings by tenure, household reference person aged 75-84
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Owner/purchaser 91315 1.42 1.53
  Public rental 7406 1.38 1.57
  Private rental 8962 1.40 1.56
  Other 1581 1.43 1.54
NSWB Owner/purchaser 77229 1.55 1.70
  Public rental 3982 1.52 1.80
  Private rental 7888 1.53 1.78
  Other 1828 1.56 1.73
VICCC Owner/purchaser 89453 1.49 1.59
  Public rental 3962 1.44 1.68
  Private rental 7529 1.46 1.64
  Other 1175 1.48 1.61
VICB Owner/purchaser 42958 1.52 1.72
  Public rental 1594 1.48 1.83
  Private rental 3813 1.50 1.79
  Other 1043 1.51 1.77
QLDCC Owner/purchaser 33904 1.71 1.60
  Public rental 1987 1.66 1.65
  Private rental 4710 1.68 1.63
  Other 634 1.71 1.61
QLDB Owner/purchaser 48923 1.96 1.84
  Public rental 2548 1.92 1.95
  Private rental 7786 1.94 1.90
  Other 1223 1.97 1.86
SACC Owner/purchaser 32817 1.37 1.53
  Public rental 3907 1.35 1.60
  Private rental 2742 1.37 1.57
  Other 618 1.37 1.56
SAB Owner/purchaser 11699 1.66 1.71
  Public rental 1060 1.63 1.81
  Private rental 1249 1.65 1.77
  Other 281 1.68 1.68
WACC Owner/purchaser 31306 1.83 1.74
  Public rental 2271 1.81 1.81
  Private rental 4120 1.82 1.79
  Other 602 1.84 1.76
WAB Owner/purchaser 10484 2.15 2.11
  Public rental 943 2.12 2.23
  Private rental 1406 2.14 2.19
  Other 282 2.17 2.02
TASCC Owner/purchaser 5486 1.56 1.61
  Public rental 463 1.50 1.69
  Private rental 654 1.53 1.65
  Other 62 1.58 1.61
TASB Owner/purchaser 7400 1.66 1.66
  Public rental 622 1.57 1.80
  Private rental 881 1.62 1.73
  Other 83 1.69 1.65
NT Owner/purchaser 771 3.14 2.19
  Public rental 230 3.11 2.27
  Private rental 240 3.03 2.18
  Other 77 3.11 2.28
ACT Owner/purchaser 5399 1.90 1.52
  Public rental 838 1.82 1.59
  Private rental 224 1.95 1.49
  Other 97 1.96 1.49
SEQ Owner/purchaser 58884 1.82 1.67
  Public rental 3590 1.78 1.75
  Private rental 8339 1.80 1.71
  Other 997 1.85 1.66
Table 9. Growth in dwellings by tenure, household reference person aged 85+
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Owner/purchaser 32932 1.39 1.88
  Public rental 2252 1.37 1.88
  Private rental 2238 1.40 1.89
  Other 737 1.39 1.93
NSWB Owner/purchaser 23070 1.69 2.00
  Public rental 947 1.66 2.02
  Private rental 2093 1.69 2.02
  Other 458 1.67 2.06
VICCC Owner/purchaser 28311 1.58 1.91
  Public rental 872 1.57 1.91
  Private rental 2524 1.57 1.92
  Other 589 1.55 1.94
VICB Owner/purchaser 12965 1.59 2.10
  Public rental 411 1.56 2.13
  Private rental 1072 1.58 2.12
  Other 307 1.56 2.15
QLDCC Owner/purchaser 11944 1.44 2.25
  Public rental 432 1.42 2.29
  Private rental 1278 1.44 2.28
  Other 321 1.43 2.31
QLDB Owner/purchaser 14689 1.83 2.40
  Public rental 602 1.79 2.46
  Private rental 2043 1.82 2.42
  Other 488 1.83 2.46
SACC Owner/purchaser 11276 1.38 1.91
  Public rental 1047 1.36 1.93
  Private rental 915 1.38 1.93
  Other 282 1.37 1.94
SAB Owner/purchaser 3350 1.74 2.18
  Public rental 293 1.71 2.22
  Private rental 339 1.72 2.22
  Other 193 1.72 2.23
WACC Owner/purchaser 10603 1.70 2.33
  Public rental 582 1.67 2.38
  Private rental 1058 1.70 2.34
  Other 173 1.70 2.38
WAB Owner/purchaser 2757 2.39 2.66
  Public rental 161 2.34 2.73
  Private rental 314 2.40 2.64
  Other 216 2.37 2.68
TASCC Owner/purchaser 1897 1.65 2.08
  Public rental 85 1.65 2.10
  Private rental 154 1.64 2.10
  Other 19 1.77 2.08
TASB Owner/purchaser 2499 1.52 2.10
  Public rental 112 1.51 2.12
  Private rental 204 1.50 2.13
  Other 25 1.59 2.11
NT Owner/purchaser 143 2.72 3.45
  Public rental 34 2.55 3.88
  Private rental 51 2.74 3.40
  Other 7 2.84 3.81
ACT Owner/purchaser 1655 1.77 2.46
  Public rental 305 1.65 2.53
  Private rental 81 1.98 2.38
  Other 46 1.82 2.48
SEQ Owner/purchaser 19854 1.60 2.32
  Public rental 799 1.56 2.39
  Private rental 2321 1.60 2.34
  Other 436 1.62 2.35

Tenure Demand Growth, Selected Household Types

Finally, using HaPPE, it is possible to extract data on household demand by household type by composition (dwelling type or tenure type). Appendix Tables 1-3 display projected dwelling demand for couples without children and Appendix Tables 4-6 provide the estimates for persons living alone. These tables simply provide an example of the detail that can be extracted using HaPPE to enable users to look at the important interaction effects that occur between living arrangements, dwelling structure and tenure. In interpreting the tenure interaction tables, it is also important to keep in mind that the underlying propensities are kept constant. This is why the within household tenure specific growth rates are the same between tenure types.

Concluding Comment

From the council’s perspective, projections of older persons households provide an important insight into the levels and composition of housing demand, and the importance of these dynamics within the context of population ageing. However, the data provided in this report and included in far greater detail in HaPPE (Household and Population Projection Evaluation) Resource, are important for a range of policy considerations beyond housing. For example, understanding indicative futures of elderly living arrangements is important as living arrangements are key indicators of need and wellbeing in retirement (Rowland, 1982; Rowland, 1986). Where there are shortfalls of familial support, particularly within the household, aged persons require additional, mostly economic resources to fulfil this unmet need (Rowland, 2003). The substitution of economic for familial support often occurs at the public level, placing greater strain on government resources.

References

Börsch-Supan, A. 1989. Household dissolution and the choice of alternative living arrangements among elderly Americans. Pp. 119–150 in D. Wise (ed.),The Economics of Aging. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Bishop, B. 1999.The National Strategy for an Ageing Australia. Healthy Ageing Discussion Paper. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia. Costa, D. 1997. Displacing the family: Union army pensions and elderly living arrangements.Journal of Political Economy 105(6): 1269–1292.

Englehardt, G., J. Gruber and C. Perry. 2002. Social security and elderly living arrangements.NBER Working Paper No. 8911, April. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hoerger, T., G. Picone and F. Sloan. 1996. Public subsidies, private provision of care and living arrangements of the elderly. Review of Economics and Statistics 78(3): 428–440.

McDonald P. and Temple J. 2004. Evaluation of medium-term projections of housing needs in Australia. Melbourne: Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

McDonald P., Kippen R. and Temple J. 2006. Net Transition Probabilities: An Approach to Sub-National Level Projections of Households and Housing Demand Based on Census Data. Population, Space and Place Forthcoming.

McGarry, K. and R. Schoeni. 2000. Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows independence in the twentieth century.Demography 37(2): 221–236.

Rowland D. 1997. The Demography of Ageing and Families in Australia. Australian Journal on Ageing 16: 99-104.

Rowland D. 1986. Family Structure, In Ageing and Families: A Social Networks Perspective, H. Kendig (ed); Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 17-37.

Rowland D. 1982. Living Arrangements and the Later Family Life Cycle in Australia. Australian Journal on Ageing 1: 3-6.

Rowland D. 2003. An Ageing Population: Emergence of a New Stage of Life? In The Transformation of Australia’s Population: 1970-2030, S. Khoo and P. McDonald (eds); Sydney: UNSW Press, 238-65.

Rubin, R. 2002. The economic costs of informal elder caregiving.Business Perspectives 14(1): 22–27.

Appendix Table 1. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 65-74, Couple with no Children
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 51815 1.60 1.17
  Semi-detached 6616 1.60 1.17
  Flat 8726 1.60 1.17
  Other 334 1.60 1.17
NSWB Separate house 57863 1.55 1.05
  Semi-detached 3830 1.55 1.05
  Flat 2346 1.55 1.05
  Other 1360 1.55 1.05
VICCC Separate house 55178 1.54 1.18
  Semi-detached 5701 1.54 1.18
  Flat 4632 1.54 1.18
  Other 195 1.54 1.18
VICB Separate house 31788 1.65 1.02
  Semi-detached 740 1.65 1.02
  Flat 1047 1.65 1.02
  Other 266 1.65 1.02
QLDCC Separate house 25470 1.82 1.25
  Semi-detached 1715 1.82 1.25
  Flat 1746 1.82 1.25
  Other 246 1.82 1.25
QLDB Separate house 41187 1.92 1.31
  Semi-detached 3928 1.92 1.31
  Flat 3401 1.92 1.31
  Other 1036 1.92 1.31
SACC Separate house 20674 1.54 1.03
  Semi-detached 2429 1.54 1.03
  Flat 1147 1.54 1.03
  Other 77 1.54 1.03
SAB Separate house 10344 1.60 1.03
  Semi-detached 508 1.60 1.03
  Flat 256 1.60 1.03
  Other 124 1.60 1.03
WACC Separate house 23656 1.87 1.22
  Semi-detached 2754 1.87 1.22
  Flat 1393 1.87 1.22
  Other 252 1.87 1.22
WAB Separate house 10430 1.99 1.23
  Semi-detached 707 1.99 1.23
  Flat 371 1.99 1.23
  Other 340 1.99 1.23
TASCC Separate house 3808 1.69 1.05
  Semi-detached 101 1.69 1.05
  Flat 205 1.69 1.05
  Other 19 1.69 1.05
TASB Separate house 6424 1.64 0.99
  Semi-detached 170 1.64 0.99
  Flat 345 1.64 0.99
  Other 33 1.64 0.99
NT Separate house 907 3.02 1.27
  Semi-detached 126 3.02 1.27
  Flat 134 3.02 1.27
  Other 83 3.02 1.27
ACT Separate house 4434 1.77 1.06
  Semi-detached 544 1.77 1.06
  Flat 208 1.77 1.06
  Other 8 1.77 1.06
SEQ Separate house 43872 1.88 1.30
  Semi-detached 4721 1.88 1.30
  Flat 4243 1.88 1.30
  Other 600 1.88 1.30
Appendix Table 2. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 75-84, Couple with no Children
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 22252 1.58 1.42
  Semi-detached 3809 1.58 1.42
  Flat 5320 1.58 1.42
  Other 137 1.58 1.42
NSWB Separate house 23183 1.65 1.42
  Semi-detached 2713 1.65 1.42
  Flat 1752 1.65 1.42
  Other 467 1.65 1.42
VICCC Separate house 22517 1.63 1.34
  Semi-detached 3995 1.63 1.34
  Flat 3006 1.63 1.34
  Other 74 1.63 1.34
VICB Separate house 12910 1.66 1.42
  Semi-detached 582 1.66 1.42
  Flat 991 1.66 1.42
  Other 91 1.66 1.42
QLDCC Separate house 9806 1.86 1.48
  Semi-detached 1203 1.86 1.48
  Flat 1030 1.86 1.48
  Other 92 1.86 1.48
QLDB Separate house 14309 2.07 1.64
  Semi-detached 2387 2.07 1.64
  Flat 1954 2.07 1.64
  Other 260 2.07 1.64
SACC Separate house 8974 1.47 1.33
  Semi-detached 1838 1.47 1.33
  Flat 1095 1.47 1.33
  Other 20 1.47 1.33
SAB Separate house 3865 1.76 1.41
  Semi-detached 284 1.76 1.41
  Flat 222 1.76 1.41
  Other 26 1.76 1.41
WACC Separate house 8595 1.92 1.56
  Semi-detached 1948 1.92 1.56
  Flat 1131 1.92 1.56
  Other 76 1.92 1.56
WAB Separate house 3353 2.22 1.72
  Semi-detached 403 2.22 1.72
  Flat 306 2.22 1.72
  Other 107 2.22 1.72
TASCC Separate house 1642 1.73 1.47
  Semi-detached 80 1.73 1.47
  Flat 145 1.73 1.47
  Other 8 1.73 1.47
TASB Separate house 2293 1.88 1.39
  Semi-detached 112 1.88 1.39
  Flat 203 1.88 1.39
  Other 11 1.88 1.39
NT Separate house 171 3.80 1.98
  Semi-detached 36 3.80 1.98
  Flat 41 3.80 1.98
  Other 6 3.80 1.98
ACT Separate house 1729 2.17 1.36
  Semi-detached 343 2.17 1.36
  Flat 79 2.17 1.36
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
SEQ Separate house 16601 1.93 1.53
  Semi-detached 3040 1.93 1.53
  Flat 2463 1.93 1.53
  Other 206 1.93 1.53
Appendix Table 3. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 85+, Couple with no Children
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 2934 1.67 1.87
  Semi-detached 567 1.67 1.87
  Flat 999 1.67 1.87
  Other 12 1.67 1.87
NSWB Separate house 2496 2.03 1.79
  Semi-detached 409 2.03 1.79
  Flat 315 2.03 1.79
  Other 51 2.03 1.79
VICCC Separate house 2560 1.86 1.78
  Semi-detached 690 1.86 1.78
  Flat 539 1.86 1.78
  Other 12 1.86 1.78
VICB Separate house 1447 1.75 1.94
  Semi-detached 107 1.75 1.94
  Flat 152 1.75 1.94
  Other 5 1.75 1.94
QLDCC Separate house 1295 1.69 2.15
  Semi-detached 244 1.69 2.15
  Flat 147 1.69 2.15
  Other 13 1.69 2.15
QLDB Separate house 1613 2.05 2.21
  Semi-detached 405 2.05 2.21
  Flat 306 2.05 2.21
  Other 33 2.05 2.21
SACC Separate house 1121 1.69 1.78
  Semi-detached 294 1.69 1.78
  Flat 228 1.69 1.78
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
SAB Separate house 409 2.02 1.93
  Semi-detached 42 2.02 1.93
  Flat 53 2.02 1.93
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
WACC Separate house 949 1.97 2.10
  Semi-detached 361 1.97 2.10
  Flat 199 1.97 2.10
  Other 9 1.97 2.10
WAB Separate house 342 2.71 2.32
  Semi-detached 40 2.71 2.32
  Flat 34 2.71 2.32
  Other 5 2.71 2.32
TASCC Separate house 212 2.41 1.92
  Semi-detached 19 2.41 1.92
  Flat 29 2.41 1.92
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
TASB Separate house 242 2.11 1.94
  Semi-detached 22 2.11 1.94
  Flat 33 2.11 1.94
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
NT Separate house 19 2.69 4.49
  Semi-detached 2 2.69 4.49
  Flat 3 2.69 4.49
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
ACT Separate house 198 2.44 2.25
  Semi-detached 52 2.44 2.25
  Flat 38 2.44 2.25
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
SEQ Separate house 2117 1.80 2.17
  Semi-detached 548 1.80 2.17
  Flat 367 1.80 2.17
  Other 25 1.80 2.17
Appendix Table 4. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 65-74, Lone Persons
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 23253 1.88 1.34
  Semi-detached 6967 1.88 1.34
  Flat 15488 1.88 1.34
  Other 770 1.88 1.34
NSWB Separate house 29564 2.28 1.31
  Semi-detached 4279 2.28 1.31
  Flat 6387 2.28 1.31
  Other 2243 2.28 1.31
VICCC Separate house 25235 2.07 1.54
  Semi-detached 6557 2.07 1.54
  Flat 10335 2.07 1.54
  Other 488 2.07 1.54
VICB Separate house 17531 2.35 1.33
  Semi-detached 1484 2.35 1.33
  Flat 3294 2.35 1.33
  Other 723 2.35 1.33
QLDCC Separate house 11395 2.29 1.44
  Semi-detached 2215 2.29 1.44
  Flat 4459 2.29 1.44
  Other 704 2.29 1.44
QLDB Separate house 19661 2.53 1.56
  Semi-detached 4009 2.53 1.56
  Flat 6431 2.53 1.56
  Other 1862 2.53 1.56
SACC Separate house 9588 2.12 1.31
  Semi-detached 3333 2.12 1.31
  Flat 3333 2.12 1.31
  Other 102 2.12 1.31
SAB Separate house 4913 2.51 1.43
  Semi-detached 706 2.51 1.43
  Flat 649 2.51 1.43
  Other 179 2.51 1.43
WACC Separate house 10724 2.52 1.47
  Semi-detached 4086 2.52 1.47
  Flat 3525 2.52 1.47
  Other 364 2.52 1.47
WAB Separate house 5232 3.12 1.58
  Semi-detached 919 3.12 1.58
  Flat 811 3.12 1.58
  Other 473 3.12 1.58
TASCC Separate house 2662 2.16 1.16
  Semi-detached 167 2.16 1.16
  Flat 361 2.16 1.16
  Other 82 2.16 1.16
TASB Separate house 4060 2.22 1.28
  Semi-detached 255 2.22 1.28
  Flat 551 2.22 1.28
  Other 124 2.22 1.28
NT Separate house 683 2.94 1.56
  Semi-detached 396 2.94 1.56
  Flat 477 2.94 1.56
  Other 165 2.94 1.56
ACT Separate house 2078 2.34 1.24
  Semi-detached 773 2.34 1.24
  Flat 439 2.34 1.24
  Other 19 2.34 1.24
SEQ Separate house 22707 2.41 1.47
  Semi-detached 4294 2.41 1.47
  Flat 6003 2.41 1.47
  Other 635 2.41 1.47
Appendix Table 5. Growth in dwellings by type
, household reference person aged 75-84, Lone Persons
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 41820 1.35 1.64
  Semi-detached 6521 1.35 1.64
  Flat 12076 1.35 1.64
  Other 643 1.35 1.64
NSWB Separate house 42885 1.52 1.92
  Semi-detached 3302 1.52 1.92
  Flat 4769 1.52 1.92
  Other 1730 1.52 1.92
VICCC Separate house 42938 1.39 1.77
  Semi-detached 6474 1.39 1.77
  Flat 8333 1.39 1.77
  Other 295 1.39 1.77
VICB Separate house 25846 1.46 1.94
  Semi-detached 1111 1.46 1.94
  Flat 2339 1.46 1.94
  Other 506 1.46 1.94
QLDCC Separate house 18022 1.64 1.69
  Semi-detached 1765 1.64 1.69
  Flat 3172 1.64 1.69
  Other 442 1.64 1.69
QLDB Separate house 25652 1.93 2.03
  Semi-detached 3086 1.93 2.03
  Flat 4541 1.93 2.03
  Other 1376 1.93 2.03
SACC Separate house 17763 1.34 1.68
  Semi-detached 3292 1.34 1.68
  Flat 2849 1.34 1.68
  Other 178 1.34 1.68
SAB Separate house 7326 1.62 1.92
  Semi-detached 793 1.62 1.92
  Flat 542 1.62 1.92
  Other 88 1.62 1.92
WACC Separate house 16118 1.80 1.88
  Semi-detached 3615 1.80 1.88
  Flat 2671 1.80 1.88
  Other 181 1.80 1.88
WAB Separate house 6263 2.15 2.40
  Semi-detached 663 2.15 2.40
  Flat 548 2.15 2.40
  Other 259 2.15 2.40
TASCC Separate house 3350 1.52 1.72
  Semi-detached 202 1.52 1.72
  Flat 505 1.52 1.72
  Other 13 1.52 1.72
TASB Separate house 4549 1.57 1.86
  Semi-detached 274 1.57 1.86
  Flat 686 1.57 1.86
  Other 18 1.57 1.86
NT Separate house 429 3.21 2.40
  Semi-detached 131 3.21 2.40
  Flat 129 3.21 2.40
  Other 62 3.21 2.40
ACT Separate house 2849 1.81 1.63
  Semi-detached 548 1.81 1.63
  Flat 257 1.81 1.63
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
SEQ Separate house 29697 1.78 1.80
  Semi-detached 4683 1.78 1.80
  Flat 5572 1.78 1.80
  Other 523 1.78 1.80
Appendix Table 6. Growth in dwellings by type, household reference person aged 85+, Lone Persons
Region Household type Number in 2008 Increase, 2008-23 Increase, 2023-38
NSWCC Separate house 18697 1.30 2.00
  Semi-detached 3059 1.30 2.00
  Flat 5345 1.30 2.00
  Other 141 1.30 2.00
NSWB Separate house 15821 1.59 2.17
  Semi-detached 1475 1.59 2.17
  Flat 1757 1.59 2.17
  Other 331 1.59 2.17
VICCC Separate house 17158 1.46 2.02
  Semi-detached 2850 1.46 2.02
  Flat 3166 1.46 2.02
  Other 51 1.46 2.02
VICB Separate house 9512 1.50 2.25
  Semi-detached 579 1.50 2.25
  Flat 938 1.50 2.25
  Other 77 1.50 2.25
QLDCC Separate house 7917 1.36 2.41
  Semi-detached 906 1.36 2.41
  Flat 1008 1.36 2.41
  Other 55 1.36 2.41
QLDB Separate house 9425 1.75 2.60
  Semi-detached 1220 1.75 2.60
  Flat 1716 1.75 2.60
  Other 241 1.75 2.60
SACC Separate house 7629 1.28 2.05
  Semi-detached 1464 1.28 2.05
  Flat 1142 1.28 2.05
  Other 68 1.28 2.05
SAB Separate house 2770 1.64 2.33
  Semi-detached 196 1.64 2.33
  Flat 266 1.64 2.33
  Other 20 1.64 2.33
WACC Separate house 6537 1.63 2.49
  Semi-detached 1553 1.63 2.49
  Flat 1085 1.63 2.49
  Other 24 1.63 2.49
WAB Separate house 2150 2.26 2.89
  Semi-detached 200 2.26 2.89
  Flat 154 2.26 2.89
  Other 61 2.26 2.89
TASCC Separate house 1324 1.54 2.22
  Semi-detached 76 1.54 2.22
  Flat 204 1.54 2.22
  Other 3 1.54 2.22
TASB Separate house 1817 1.39 2.25
  Semi-detached 104 1.39 2.25
  Flat 280 1.39 2.25
  Other 4 1.39 2.25
NT Separate house 91 2.61 3.89
  Semi-detached 18 2.61 3.89
  Flat 16 2.61 3.89
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
ACT Separate house 1046 1.61 2.64
  Semi-detached 230 1.61 2.64
  Flat 200 1.61 2.64
  Other 0 n.a. n.a.
SEQ Separate house 12067 1.52 2.49
  Semi-detached 2068 1.52 2.49
  Flat 2287 1.52 2.49
  Other 144 1.52 2.49