Economic Impact Analysis: National Plan to Transition to Australia’s National COVID 19 Response

978 1 925832 39


The Doherty Institute prepared a report for the 30 July 2021 National Cabinet meeting assessing the impact of different levels of community vaccination on the transmission potential of the Delta variant of COVID‑19. In their modelling the Doherty Institute identifies a range of additional health interventions, or different ‘bundles’ of Public Health and Social Measures (PHSM), necessary to further restrict the spread of the virus under different scenarios in order to either minimise cases of the virus or keep cases below health sector capacity limits.

In this paper, Treasury estimates the direct economic costs of the COVID‑19 management strategies modelled by the Doherty Institute through analysis of the direct impacts of activity restrictions and lockdowns used to manage the virus and contain outbreaks. By combining the estimated economics costs of each type of PHSM with the Doherty Institute’s estimates of the length of time each is required under different virus management strategies, this analysis considers the relative cost effectiveness of different types of health interventions and potential responses to outbreaks of COVID-19.