Information on the Treasury website will be published in accordance with the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet's Guidance on Caretaker Conventions. No election-related material will be available on this website. Please see the relevant minister's or party's website for more information on election-related material.

Long-term international GDP projections

ISBN 978 0 642
Wilson Au-Yeung, Michael Kouparitsas, Nghi Luu and Dhruv Sharma
Publication type


Working Paper 2013-02

This paper develops a framework for projecting the GDP growth of Australia’s trading partners from 2012 to 2050. The framework draws heavily on the existing conditional growth literature, including long-standing estimates of key convergence parameters. It adds to the large amount of research in this area by providing estimates of the level of long-run relative productivity for 155 countries. We use a novel non-parametric approach that combines the World Economic Forum’s ordinal measure of long-run relative productivity (the ‘Global Competiveness Index’) and actual observed productivity to produce a cardinal measure of long-run relative productivity.