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Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts

Date
ISBN
978-0-642-74945
Author
John Clark, Caroline Gibbons, Susan Morrissey, Joshua Pooley, Emily Pye, Rhett Wilcox and Luke Willard
Topic
Publication type

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Working Paper 2013-04

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.