A version of this paper was published in Asian‑Pacific Economic Literature, McKissack, A. and Xu, J. Y. (2011), Chinese macroeconomic management through the crisis and beyond, vol. 25, pp. 43‑55. The authors would like to thank Andrew Hordern for his significant contribution to this paper. The paper also benefited from comments provided by Bill Brummitt, Mike Callaghan, David Gruen, Mark Krueger and Nghi Luu. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Australian Treasury.