Tobacco excise: historical trends and forecasting methodology

Tobacco excise has grown strongly over the last few years as significant increases in the excise rate have been only partly offset by declining rates of smoking. This paper examines historical trends in tobacco excise, focussing on the recent past including the impact of significant policy changes over the last decade, and then discusses how tobacco excise is forecast and the key challenges in doing so.

* The authors worked on this paper while in Tax Analysis Division, Revenue Group, The Treasury, Langton Crescent, Parkes ACT 2600, Australia. We thank Adam Hollis and Joshua Pooley for their work on earlier drafts of this paper.