Ageing in Australia: Some modelling results and research issues

Bruce R Bacon
Publication type


Conference Paper 99/1

Paper presented at Policy Implications of the Ageing of Australia's Population, Producivity Commission, March 1999.

Much of the literature on ageing has addressed issues associated with the implications for public programs - specifically for their cost to government - with relatively little attention focusing on some of the broader economic and social consequences of ageing at both the individual and societal level

This paper raises some broader economic issues of how Australian society might look like in say sixty years time based on plausible assumptions underlying RIM’s demographic, labour force, earning and asset accumulation modelling. The paper, through a discussion of the modelling of these forces, highlights a number of tensions that could come into play.

The paper develops an economic story of ageing in Australia through an analysis of:

  • Population Growth
  • Supply of Labour
  • Early Retirement
  • Economic Growth
  • Productivity
  • Earning Profiles
  • Career Earnings
  • Public Expenditure
  • Saving
  • Wealth and
  • Bequests.