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The Australian Treasury, China’s State Information Center and the Australian National University jointly held their second macroeconomic workshop on Thursday 12 December 2013. Similar to the workshop in 2012, over 30 representatives from government agencies and academic institutes in both Australia and China attended the workshop. The participants’ expertise provided a platform to present a mixture of modelling techniques to examine issues such as the role of emerging Asia (especially China) in the transmission of global economic shocks and the implications of structural change in the Chinese economy for global commodity prices.
Agenda
9.00‑9.15 Welcome remarks by Professor Trevor Breusch of the Australian National University.
| 9.15‑9.30 |
Opening remarks on alternative modelling techniques by Dr Michael Kouparitsas, Australian Treasury. The presenter reflected on the modelling needs of different policy makers and the trade-off that needed to be made in time series modelling between conformity with data and richness of economic theory. |
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| 9.30‑10.15 |
"Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier", presented by Professor Renee McKibbin, Australian National University, discussed by Professor Farshid Vahid, Monash University. The presentation examined the effects of an extensive and sustained resources boom on the Australian macro-economy and the feedback from Australia to China using a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach. |
| 10.30‑11.15 |
"The international effects of downturns in China's real estate and steel sectors" (forthcoming), presented by Dr Linden Luo, Australian Treasury, discussed by Professor Renee McKibbin, Australian National University. The presentation examined the effects of a slowdown in China's real estate and steel sectors on China's domestic economy and international economies using a factor-augmented VAR. |
| 10.15‑12.00 |
"Impact of US monetary policy shocks on emerging Asia: Insights from the IMF's GIMF model" (unpublished), presented by Ms Leanne Neo, Australian Treasury, and discussed by Mr Ivan Roberts, Reserve Bank of Australia. The presentation examined some results comparing the effects of US monetary policy changes under different sets of monetary policy settings in emerging Asia. The presentation also investigated the effects of a monetary policy shock in the US accompanied by counter-acting fiscal policy in emerging Asia. |
| 1.15‑2.00 |
"Looking inward for transformative growth in China", presented by Professor Rod Tyers, Australian National University and University of Western Australia, and discussed by Associate Professor Ligang Song, Australian National University. The presentation examined some potential policy changes in China and how they could contribute to maintaining strong economic growth. |
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| 2.00‑2.45 |
"China's transportation demand forecast" (unpublished), presented by Mr Yaxiong Zhang, Deputy Director-General, State Information Center, and discussed by Mr Bruce Taplin, Australian Treasury. The presentation examined some results from the State Information Center's computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and compared their projections with US and Japanese experience during industrialisation. |
| 3.00‑3.45 |
"Long-run forecasts of Australia's non-rural bulk commodity export prices and volumes" (unpublished), presented by Mr Jared Bullen, Australian Treasury, and discussed by Professor Quentin Grafton, Australia National University. The presentation discussed a framework for forecasting demand, supply and prices in the iron ore and coal markets over the medium to longer term. |
| 3.45‑3.55 |
Closing remarks by Mr Adam McKissack, Australian Treasury (Australian Embassy, Beijing). The presenter reflected on the wide range of insights gained from the workshop's presentations and noted some of the important policy implications of the modelling results. |