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Economic modelling

In response to a review of its macroeconomic forecasting methodology, Treasury undertook to develop a wider range of alternative techniques to forecast the economy and to convene an external panel of experts to provide advice on those alternatives.

The expert panel provides advice on technical macroeconomic and forecasting issues. The members are academics and other macroeconomic experts with specialist knowledge in macroeconomic modelling.

Treasury is also making a determined effort to build its macroeconomic and modelling capacity recruiting staff with extensive macroeconomic and modelling experience. Following the forecasting review, Chris Murphy was commissioned in mid-2016 to undertake a further comprehensive review of Treasury’s modelling capability, including its economic, tax and fiscal modelling.

Treasury also hosted a conference on Modelling for Public Policy Analysis: Emerging Trends and Future Directions in Sydney earlier this year. The conference was attended by prominent international and Australian experts on economic and fiscal modelling, including from the Congressional Budget Office, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and NZ Treasury.