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Chapter 1



Chart 1.2 Australia’s historical and projected total fertility rate

Chart 1.2Historical total fertility rate fluctuates between a maxium of 3.5 in 1961 and minimum of 1.7 in 2001, but it has been reasonably stable at around 1.9 since the late 1970s. This report assumes a total fertility rate of 1.9 from 2014 onwards.

Note: The total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would bear during her lifetime if she experienced the current age–specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3105.0.65.001, 3301.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.2 Australia’s historical and projected total fertility rate
  History Assumption
1921 3.1  
1922 3.1  
1923 3.0  
1924 3.0  
1925 3.0  
1926 2.8  
1927 2.8  
1928 2.8  
1929 2.6  
1930 2.6  
1931 2.4  
1932 2.2  
1933 2.2  
1934 2.1  
1935 2.1  
1936 2.2  
1937 2.2  
1938 2.2  
1939 2.2  
1940 2.3  
1941 2.4  
1942 2.4  
1943 2.6  
1944 2.6  
1945 2.7  
1946 3.0  
1947 3.1  
1948 3.0  
1949 3.0  
1950 3.1  
1951 3.1  
1952 3.2  
1953 3.2  
1954 3.2  
1955 3.3  
1956 3.3  
1957 3.4  
1958 3.4  
1959 3.4  
1960 3.5  
1961 3.5  
1962 3.4  
1963 3.3  
1964 3.2  
1965 3.0  
1966 2.9  
1967 2.8  
1968 2.9  
1969 2.9  
1970 2.9  
1971 2.9  
1972 2.7  
1973 2.5  
1974 2.3  
1975 2.1  
1976 2.1  
1977 2.0  
1978 1.9  
1979 1.9  
1980 1.9  
1981 1.9  
1982 1.9  
1983 1.9  
1984 1.8  
1985 1.9  
1986 1.9  
1987 1.8  
1988 1.8  
1989 1.8  
1990 1.9  
1991 1.8  
1992 1.9  
1993 1.9  
1994 1.8  
1995 1.8  
1996 1.8  
1997 1.8  
1998 1.8  
1999 1.8  
2000 1.8  
2001 1.7  
2002 1.8  
2003 1.8  
2004 1.8  
2005 1.8  
2006 1.9  
2007 2.0  
2008 2.0  
2009 2.0  
2010 2.0  
2011 1.9  
2012 1.9  
2013 1.9  
2014   1.9
2015   1.9
2016   1.9
2017   1.9
2018   1.9
2019   1.9
2020   1.9
2021   1.9
2022   1.9
2023   1.9
2024   1.9
2025   1.9
2026   1.9
2027   1.9
2028   1.9
2029   1.9
2030   1.9
2031   1.9
2032   1.9
2033   1.9
2034   1.9
2035   1.9
2036   1.9
2037   1.9
2038   1.9
2039   1.9
2040   1.9
2041   1.9
2042   1.9
2043   1.9
2044   1.9
2045   1.9
2046   1.9
2047   1.9
2048   1.9
2049   1.9
2050   1.9
2051   1.9
2052   1.9
2053   1.9
2054   1.9
2055   1.9

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Chart 1.3 Male and female life expectancy, 1905 to 2055

Both male and female life expectancy are projected to continue to increase over time. Male life expectancy is projected to increase from 55.2 years in 1905 to 88.1 years by 2055. Female life expectancy is projected to increase from 58.8 years in 1905 to 90.5 years by 2055. This chart use the period method of measuring life expectancy.

Note: These figures are period life expectancies.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3105.0.65.001 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.3 Male and female life expectancy, 1905 to 2055
  Male life expectancy Female life expectancy
1905 55.2 58.8
1921 59.2 63.3
1933 63.5 67.1
1947 66.1 70.6
1954 67.1 72.8
1961 67.9 74.2
1966 67.6 74.2
1971 67.8 74.5
1976 69.6 76.6
1981 71.2 78.3
1986 72.7 79.2
1991 74.3 80.4
1996 75.7 81.4
2001 77.6 82.9
2006 79.0 83.7
2011 80.1 84.3
2015 80.6 84.8
2025 82.9 86.4
2035 84.9 87.9
2045 86.6 89.3
2055 88.1 90.5

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Chart 1.4 Age distribution of Australia’s population and migrants

The chart shows that migrants, on average, are younger than the resident population. In 2013-14, around 88 per cent of migrants were under 40 years old. Incomparison, at 30 June 2014, around 54 per cent of the resident Australian population was aged under 40.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3101.0 and 3412.0.

Data – Chart 1.4 Age distribution of Australia’s population and migrants
  Net Overseas Migration 2013-14 Australian Population June 2014
0-4 5.8 6.5
5-9 6.2 6.3
10-14 5.0 6.0
15-19 16.0 6.3
20-24 23.0 7.0
25-29 14.9 7.5
30-34 10.5 7.3
35-39 6.2 6.6
40-44 5.0 7.1
45-49 1.6 6.6
50-54 2.0 6.6
55-59 1.0 6.1
60-64 1.3 5.4
65 and over 1.5 14.7

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Chart 1.5 Net overseas migration as a percentage of the population

In the post-war years from 1949-1972, the average annual net overeas migration was around 1.0 per cent of the total population. From 1973 to 2006, the average was around 0.5 per cent per annum. From 2007 to 2018 (the end of the forward estimates), average annual net overseas migration is projected to be around 1.1 per cent of the total population. Under the assumption of 215,000 net overseas migration per annum, this proportion is projected to fall to around 0.5 per cent by 2055.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3105.0.65.001, 3101.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.5 Net overseas migration as a percentage of the population
  NOM (per cent)
1925-26 0.7
1926-27 0.8
1927-28 0.5
1928-29 0.2
1929-30 -0.2
1930-31 -0.2
1931-32 -0.1
1932-33 0.0
1933-34 0.0
1934-35 0.0
1935-36 0.0
1936-37 0.1
1937-38 0.1
1938-39 0.2
1939-40 0.2
1940-41 0.1
1941-42 0.1
1942-43 0.0
1943-44 0.0
1944-45 0.0
1945-46 -0.2
1946-47 0.2
1947-48 0.6
1948-49 1.9
1949-50 1.9
1950-51 1.3
1951-52 1.1
1952-53 0.5
1953-54 0.8
1954-55 1.0
1955-56 1.1
1956-57 0.8
1957-58 0.7
1958-59 0.8
1959-60 0.9
1960-61 0.6
1961-62 0.6
1962-63 0.7
1963-64 0.9
1964-65 1.0
1965-66 0.8
1966-67 0.8
1967-68 1.0
1968-69 1.2
1969-70 1.1
1970-71 0.8
1971-72 0.4
1972-73 0.5
1973-74 0.6
1974-75 0.1
1975-76 0.2
1976-77 0.5
1977-78 0.3
1978-79 0.5
1979-80 0.7
1980-81 0.8
1981-82 0.9
1982-83 0.5
1983-84 0.3
1984-85 0.5
1985-86 0.6
1986-87 0.8
1987-88 0.9
1988-89 0.9
1989-90 0.7
1990-91 0.5
1991-92 0.4
1992-93 0.2
1993-94 0.3
1994-95 0.4
1995-96 0.6
1996-97 0.5
1997-98 0.4
1998-99 0.5
1999-00 0.6
2000-01 0.7
2001-02 0.6
2002-03 0.6
2003-04 0.5
2004-05 0.6
2005-06 0.7
2006-07 1.1
2007-08 1.3
2008-09 1.4
2009-10 0.9
2010-11 0.8
2011-12 1.0
2012-13 1.0
2013-14 0.9
2014-15 1.0
2015-16 1.0
2016-17 1.0
2017-18 1.0
2018-19 0.8
2019-20 0.8
2020-21 0.8
2021-22 0.8
2022-23 0.8
2023-24 0.8
2024-25 0.8
2025-26 0.8
2026-27 0.8
2027-28 0.7
2028-29 0.7
2029-30 0.7
2030-31 0.7
2031-32 0.7
2032-33 0.7
2033-34 0.7
2034-35 0.7
2035-36 0.7
2036-37 0.7
2037-38 0.7
2038-39 0.6
2039-40 0.6
2040-41 0.6
2041-42 0.6
2042-43 0.6
2043-44 0.6
2044-45 0.6
2045-46 0.6
2046-47 0.6
2047-48 0.6
2048-49 0.6
2049-50 0.6
2050-51 0.6
2051-52 0.6
2052-53 0.6
2053-54 0.5
2054-55 0.5

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Chart 1.6 Proportion of population aged 65 and over

In 1975, about 8.7 per cent of the population was aged 65 and over. In 2015, this proportion is estimated to be around 14.9 per cent. By 2055, it is projected that around 22.5 per cent of the population will be aged 65 and over.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3105.0.65.001, 3101.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.6 Proportion of population aged 65 and over
  65-84 85 and over
1975 8.1 0.6
2015 13.0 2.0
2055 17.7 4.9

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Chart 1.7 Number of centenarians

There are currently less than 5,000 centenarians. It is projected that by 2054-55, there will be around 40,000 centenarians.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3105.0.65.001, 3101.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.7 Number of centenarians
  Number of centenarians
1974-75 122
1975-76 293
1976-77 336
1977-78 297
1978-79 291
1979-80 363
1980-81 443
1
981-82
557
1982-83 664
1983-84 406
1984-85 356
1985-86 839
1986-87 1,041
1987-88 1,129
1988-89 1,222
1989-90 1,316
1990-91 1,268
1991-92 1,077
1992-93 1,012
1993-94 1,115
1994-95 1,254
1995-96 1,521
1996-97 1,720
1997-98 1,823
1998-99 1,893
1999-00 2,113
2000-01 2,281
2001-02 2,281
2002-03 2,304
2003-04 2,351
2004-05 2,402
2005-06 2,414
2006-07 2,579
2007-08 2,724
2008-09 2,754
2009-10 2,943
2010-11 3,052
2011-12 3,297
2012-13 3,755
2013-14 4,046
2014-15 4,493
2015-16 4,820
2016-17 5,011
2017-18 5,170
2018-19 5,285
2019-20 5,836
2020-21 6,460
2021-22 7,009
2022-23 7,411
2023-24 7,823
2024-25 8,217
2025-26 8,602
2026-27 8,946
2027-28 9,300
2028-29 9,622
2029-30 9,989
2030-31 10,329
2031-32 10,496
2032-33 10,740
2033-34 11,033
2034-35 11,462
2035-36 12,068
2036-37 12,698
2037-38 13,387
2038-39 14,208
2039-40 15,093
2040-41 16,011
2041-42 17,190
2042-43 18,257
2043-44 19,855
2044-45 21,487
2045-46 23,103
2046-47 26,012
2047-48 27,867
2048-49 29,279
2049-50 30,799
2050-51 32,326
2051-52 33,814
2052-53 35,576
2053-54 37,267
2054-55 39,185

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Chart 1.8 Proportion of the Australian population in different age groups in 2014–15 and 2054–55 as a percentage of the total population

his chart compares the structure of Australia's population in 2014-15 with 2054-55 projections. The percentage of the population aged in their younger years will fall and the proportion of the population aged in their later years will increase markedly.

Source: Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.8 Proportion of the Australian population in different age groups in 2014-15 and 2054-55 as a percentage of the total population
  Per cent of total population
  2014-15 2054-55
0-4 6.6 5.9
5-9 6.4 5.8
10-14 6.0 5.7
15-19 6.2 5.6
20-24 7.0 5.9
25-29 7.6 6.3
30-34 7.5 6.5
35-39 6.7 6.5
40-44 7.0 6.2
45-49 6.6 6.0
50-54 6.6 5.7
55-59 6.1 5.6
60-64 5.4 5.6
65-69 4.9 5.4
70-74 3.6 4.8
75-79 2.7 3.9
80-84 1.9 3.6
85-89 1.3 2.7
90-94 0.6 1.6
95-99 0.1 0.5
100+ 0.0 0.1

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Chart 1.9 Number of people aged from 15 to 64 relative to the number of people aged 65 and over

The number of people aged from 15 to 64 relative to the number of people aged 65 and over was around 7.3 in 1974-75, had fallen to 4.5 by 2014-15, and is projected to fall further to 2.7 by 2054-55.

Source: ABS cat. no. 3105.0.65.001, 3101.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.9 Number of people aged from 15 to 64 relative to the number of people aged 65 and over
Year Number of people aged from 15 to 64 relative to the number of people aged 65 and over
2054-55 2.7
2044-45 3.0
2034-35 3.2
2024-25 3.7
2014-15 4.5
1989-90 6.1
1974-75 7.3

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Chart 1.10 Historical and projected participation rates

Over the next 40 years, the propotion of the population participating in the workforce is expected to decline as a result of population ageing. Overall, participation for all people aged 15 years and over is projected to fall from 64.6 per cent in 2014-15 to 62.4 per cent in 2054-55.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6291.0.55.001 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.10 Historical and projected participation rates
  15-64 15 and over
1978-79 68.6 60.7
1979-80 69.1 61.0
1980-81 69.5 61.3
1981-82 69.3 61.0
1982-83 69.0 60.6
1983-84 69.0 60.5
1984-85 69.1 60.5
1985-86 70.3 61.4
1986-87 71.1 62.0
1987-88 71.4 62.2
1988-89 72.1 62.6
1989-90 73.2 63.5
1990-91 73.5 63.6
1991-92 72.8 62.9
1992-93 72.6 62.6
1993-94 72.9 62.7
1994-95 73.6 63.2
1995-96 74.1 63.6
1996-97 73.9 63.4
1997-98 73.4 63.0
1998-99 73.4 62.8
1999-00 73.6 63.0
2000-01 74.0 63.2
2001-02 74.1 63.3
2002-03 74.5 63.6
2003-04 74.3 63.4
2004-05 74.9 63.9
2005-06 75.6 64.5
2006-07 76.0 65.0
2007-08 76.4 65.4
2008-09 76.5 65.5
2009-10 76.2 65.3
2010-11 76.7 65.5
2011-12 76.5 65.3
2012-13 76.5 65.1
2013-14 76.3 64.7
2014-15 76.2 64.6
2015-16 76.2 64.5
2016-17 76.5 64.6
2017-18 76.7 64.7
2018-19 77.0 64.8
2019-20 77.4 64.9
2020-21 77.7 65.1
2021-22 77.9 65.1
2022-23 78.0 65.1
2023-24 78.1 65.0
2024-25 78.2 64.9
2025-26 78.3 64.8
2026-27 78.4 64.7
2027-28 78.4 64.6
2028-29 78.5 64.5
2029-30 78.6 64.4
2030-31 78.6 64.3
2031-32 78.7 64.2
2032-33 78.7 64.1
2033-34 78.8 64.1
2034-35 78.8 64.0
2035-36 78.9 64.0
2036-37 78.9 63.9
2037-38 79.0 63.8
2038-39 79.0 63.8
2039-40 79.0 63.7
2040-41 79.1 63.6
2041-42 79.1 63.6
2042-43 79.1 63.5
2043-44 79.1 63.4
2044-45 79.1 63.4
2045-46 79.1 63.3
2046-47 79.1 63.2
2047-48 79.1 63.2
2048-49 79.1 63.1
2049-50 79.2 63.0
2050-51 79.2 62.9
2051-52 79.2 62.8
2052-53 79.2 62.7
2053-54 79.3 62.5
2054-55 79.3 62.4

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Chart 1.11 Participation rates in 1975, 2015 and 2055 by age group

Over the past 40 years, there was a significant increase in the proportion of people participated in the labour force. Participation rates for every male and female age cohort are expected to continue to increase or stabilise over the next four decades.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6291.0.55.001 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.11 Participation rates in 1975, 2015 and 2055 by age group
  1974-75 2014-15 2054-55
15-19 56.4 53.6 54.1
20-24 76.8 78.2 79.0
25-34 72.7 81.7 84.2
35-44 75.6 82.6 83.2
45-54 70.4 82.7 86.8
55-59 59.3 73.5 80.3
60-64 43.6 55.2 68.2
65+ 10.2 12.9 17.3

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Chart 1.12 Participation rates of people aged 65 years and over

 Participation rates among those aged 65 and over are projected to increase from 12.9 per cent in 2014-15 to 17.3 per cent in 2054-55.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6291.0.55.001 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.12 Participation rates of people aged 65 years and over
  Participation rate
1974-75 10.2
1975-76 9.4
1976-77 8.2
1977-78 7.9
1978-79 6.4
1979-80 6.3
1980-81 6.3
1981-82 5.6
1982-83 5.4
1983-84 5.1
1984-85 5.1
1985-86 5.1
1986-87 5.0
1987-88 5.4
1988-89 5.2
1989-90 5.2
1990-91 5.4
1991-92 5.2
1992-93 4.8
1993-94 5.1
1994-95 5.5
1995-96 5.6
1996-97 5.6
1997-98 6.1
1998-99 5.7
1999-00 6.0
2000-01 6.0
2001-02 6.4
2002-03 6.4
2003-04 6.3
2004-05 7.0
2005-06 7.6
2006-07 8.3
2007-08 9.1
2008-09 9.7
2009-10 10.5
2010-11 11.0
2011-12 11.7
2012-13 12.1
2013-14 12.2
2014-15 12.9
2015-16 13.3
2016-17 13.7
2017-18 14.0
2018-19 14.2
2019-20 14.6
2020-21 14.9
2021-22 15.2
2022-23 15.5
2023-24 15.7
2024-25 15.9
2025-26 16.0
2026-27 16.3
2027-28 16.4
2028-29 16.6
2029-30 16.6
2030-31 16.6
2031-32 16.6
2032-33 16.7
2033-34 16.7
2034-35 16.9
2035-36 17.0
2036-37 17.3
2037-38 17.4
2038-39 17.3
2039-40 17.2
2040-41 17.1
2041-42 16.9
2042-43 16.8
2043-44 16.7
2044-45 16.7
2045-46 16.7
2046-47 16.9
2047-48 17.0
2048-49 17.1
2049-50 17.2
2050-51 17.3
2051-52 17.4
2052-53 17.4
2053-54 17.3
2054-55 17.3

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Chart 1.13 Participation rates by net overseas migration assumptions

Participation rates vary with the level of net overseas migration. Migrants tend to be younger, on average, than the resident population, and therefore increase overall labour force participation rates.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6291.0.55.001 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.13 Participation rates by net overseas migration assumptions
  180,000 NOM 215,000 NOM 250,000 NOM
2007-08 65.4 65.4 65.4
2008-09 65.5 65.5 65.5
2009-10 65.3 65.3 65.3
2010-11 65.5 65.5 65.5
2011-12 65.3 65.3 65.3
2012-13 65.1 65.1 65.1
2013-14 64.7 64.7 64.7
2014-15 64.6 64.6 64.6
2015-16 64.5 64.5 64.5
2016-17 64.6 64.6 64.6
2017-18 64.7 64.7 64.7
2018-19 64.8 64.8 64.9
2019-20 64.9 64.9 65.0
2020-21 65.0 65.1 65.2
2021-22 65.1 65.1 65.3
2022-23 65.0 65.1 65.2
2023-24 64.9 65.0 65.1
2024-25 64.8 64.9 65.1
2025-26 64.6 64.8 65.0
2026-27 64.5 64.7 64.9
2027-28 64.4 64.6 64.8
2028-29 64.3 64.5 64.7
2029-30 64.2 64.4 64.6
2030-31 64.0 64.3 64.6
2031-32 63.9 64.2 64.5
2032-33 63.9 64.1 64.5
2033-34 63.8 64.1 64.4
2034-35 63.7 64.0 64.4
2035-36 63.6 64.0 64.3
2036-37 63.6 63.9 64.3
2037-38 63.5 63.8 64.3
2038-39 63.4 63.8 64.2
2039-40 63.3 63.7 64.1
2040-41 63.2 63.6 64.1
2041-42 63.1 63.6 64.0
2042-43 63.1 63.5 64.0
2043-44 63.0 63.4 63.9
2044-45 62.9 63.4 63.9
2045-46 62.8 63.3 63.8
2046-47 62.7 63.2 63.8
2047-48 62.7 63.2 63.7
2048-49 62.6 63.1 63.6
2049-50 62.5 63.0 63.6
2050-51 62.4 62.9 63.5
2051-52 62.2 62.8 63.4
2052-53 62.1 62.7 63.3
2053-54 62.0 62.5 63.1
2054-55 61.8 62.4 63.0

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Chart 1.14 Participation rates of OECD countries 2013, people aged 15 and over

Australia's participation rate for people aged 15 years and older in 2013 is around 65 per cent. This places Australia fifth amongst OECD countries. Iceland has the highest participation rate at 74 per cent, followed by Switzerland and New Zealand (68 per cent), and then Canada (66 per cent).

Source: World Bank.

Data – Chart 1.14 Participation rates of OECD countries 2013, people aged 15 and over
  Participation rate (per cent)
Iceland 74
Switzerland 68
New Zealand 68
Canada 66
Australia 65
Norway 65
Netherlands 64
Sweden 64
Israel 63
Denmark 63
United States 63
United Kingdom 62
Estonia 62
Chile 62
Mexico 62
Austria 61
South Korea 61
Ireland 61
Portugal 60
Germany 60
Finland 60
Czech Republic 60
Slovak Republic 60
Japan 59
Spain 59
Slovenia 58
Luxembourg 58
Poland 57
France 56
Belgium 53
Greece|Hide| 53
Hungary 52
Turkey 49
Italy 49

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Chart 1.15 International comparison of participation rates, 2013

In 2013, Australia's participation rate for male and female of 64.9 was lower than that of Canada (66.5) and New Zealand (68.4). Australia's female participation rate in 2013 was 58.6 compared to Canada's 62.1 and New Zealand's 63.0.

Source: International Labour Organisation.

Data – Chart 1.15 International comparison of participation rates, 2013
  Male Female Total
Australia 71.4 58.6 64.9
Canada 71.1 62.1 66.5
New Zealand 74.1 63.0 68.4

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Chart 1.16 Historical and projected average hours worked

The average number of hours worked is projected to fall slightly over the next 40 years.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.16 Historical and projected average hours worked
  Average Hours Worked
1996-97 34.14
1997-98 34.06
1998-99 33.81
1999-00 34.32
2000-01 33.62
2001-02 33.17
2002-03 33.20
2003-04 33.29
2004-05 33.18
2005-06 33.00
2006-07 32.90
2007-08 32.84
2008-09 32.72
2009-10 32.32
2010-11 32.44
2011-12 32.53
2012-13 31.88
2013-14 31.97
2014-15 32.05
2015-16 32.24
2016-17 32.27
2017-18 32.27
2018-19 32.27
2019-20 32.26
2020-21 32.25
2021-22 32.23
2022-23 32.22
2023-24 32.20
2024-25 32.19
2025-26 32.17
2026-27 32.16
2027-28 32.14
2028-29 32.14
2029-30 32.13
2030-31 32.12
2031-32 32.11
2032-33 32.10
2033-34 32.09
2034-35 32.08
2035-36 32.07
2036-37 32.06
2037-38 32.06
2038-39 32.06
2039-40 32.06
2040-41 32.06
2041-42 32.07
2042-43 32.07
2043-44 32.07
2044-45 32.07
2045-46 32.07
2046-47 32.07
2047-48 32.07
2048-49 32.06
2049-50 32.06
2050-51 32.06
2051-52 32.06
2052-53 32.05
2053-54 32.05
2054-55 32.05

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Chart 1.17 Estimated NAIRU

This chart shows the historical and projected unemployment rate and estimated NAIRU for the period June 1979 to June 2055. The unemployment rate is projected to fall to the estimated NAIRU of 5 per cent by 2020-21.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and Treasury projections

6.3

Data – Chart 1.17 Estimated NAIRU
  NAIRU Unemployment rate
Jun-79 5.7 6.3
Sep-79 5.8 6.2
Dec-79 5.8 6.2
Mar-80 5.9 6.1
Jun-80 5.9 6.2
Sep-80 6.0 6.1
Dec-80 6.0 6.0
Mar-81 6.1 5.8
Jun-81 6.1 5.5
Sep-81 6.1 5.9
Dec-81 6.1 6.0
Mar-82 6.1 6.2
Jun-82 6.1 6.6
Sep-82 6.1 7.1
Dec-82 6.0 8.8
Mar-83 5.9 9.7
Jun-83 5.8 10.2
Sep-83 5.7 10.3
Dec-83 5.7 9.7
Mar-84 5.6 9.4
Jun-84 5.6 9.2
Sep-84 5.6 8.8
Dec-84 5.6 8.6
Mar-85 5.6 8.6
Jun-85 5.6 8.5
Sep-85 5.6 8.1
Dec-85 5.6 7.9
Mar-86 5.6 8.0
Jun-86 5.7 7.8
Sep-86 5.7 8.3
Dec-86 5.7 8.3
Mar-87 5.7 8.3
Jun-87 5.7 8.2
Sep-87 5.7 8.0
Dec-87 5.8 7.9
Mar-88 5.9 7.6
Jun-88 5.9 7.6
Sep-88 6.0 7.0
Dec-88 6.0 6.8
Mar-89 6.1 6.6
Jun-89 6.1 6.2
Sep-89 6.1 6.0
Dec-89 6.1 5.9
Mar-90 6.2 6.2
Jun-90 6.2 6.5
Sep-90 6.2 7.2
Dec-90 6.3 7.9
Mar-91 6.3 8.7
Jun-91 6.4 9.6
Sep-91 6.4 9.9
Dec-91 6.5 10.2
Mar-92 6.6 10.4
Jun-92 6.6 10.7
Sep-92 6.7 10.8
Dec-92 6.7 11.1
Mar-93 6.7 10.9
Jun-93 6.7 10.9
Sep-93 6.8 10.9
Dec-93 6.8 10.8
Mar-94 6.9 10.4
Jun-94 6.9 9.9
Sep-94 6.9 9.5
Dec-94 7.0 9.0
Mar-95 7.0 8.8
Jun-95 7.0 8.4
Sep-95 7.0 8.4
Dec-95 7.0 8.4
Mar-96 7.0 8.4
Jun-96 7.0 8.4
Sep-96 7.0 8.6
Dec-96 7.0 8.6
Mar-97 6.9 8.6
Jun-97 6.9 8.5
Sep-97 6.9 8.4
Dec-97 6.8 8.0
Mar-98 6.8 7.8
Jun-98 6.8 7.7
Sep-98 6.7 7.8
Dec-98 6.7 7.4
Mar-99 6.7 7.1
Jun-99 6.6 6.9
Sep-99 6.6 6.9
Dec-99 6.6 6.6
Mar-00 6.5 6.7
Jun-00 6.5 6.3
Sep-00 6.5 6.0
Dec-00 6.5 6.2
Mar-01 6.4 6.4
Jun-01 6.4 6.8
Sep-01 6.4 6.9
Dec-01 6.4 7.0
Mar-02 6.4 6.6
Jun-02 6.4 6.4
Sep-02 6.3 6.3
Dec-02 6.3 6.1
Mar-03 6.1
Jun-03 6.3 6.0
Sep-03 6.2 5.9
Dec-03 6.2 5.7
Mar-04 6.2 5.5
Jun-04 6.1 5.4
Sep-04 6.1 5.5
Dec-04 6.0 5.1
Mar-05 6.0 5.1
Jun-05 5.9 5.0
Sep-05 5.8 5.0
Dec-05 5.7 5.0
Mar-06 5.6 5.0
Jun-06 5.6 4.8
Sep-06 5.5 4.7
Dec-06 5.5 4.5
Mar-07 5.4 4.5
Jun-07 5.4 4.3
Sep-07 5.3 4.3
Dec-07 5.3 4.4
Mar-08 5.2 4.1
Jun-08 5.1 4.2
Sep-08 5.1 4.2
Dec-08 5.1 4.4
Mar-09 5.1 5.3
Jun-09 5.1 5.7
Sep-09 5.2 5.7
Dec-09 5.3 5.6
Mar-10 5.4 5.3
Jun-10 5.4 5.3
Sep-10 5.5 5.1
Dec-10 5.5 5.1
Mar-11 5.5 5.0
Jun-11 5.4 5.0
Sep-11 5.3 5.2
Dec-11 5.2 5.2
Mar-12 5.1 5.1
Jun-12 5.0 5.1
Sep-12 4.9 5.3
Dec-12 4.8 5.3
Mar-13 4.7 5.5
Jun-13 4.7 5.6
Sep-13 4.7 5.7
Dec-13 4.6 5.8
Mar-14 4.6 5.9
Jun-14 4.6 6.0
Sep-14 4.7 6.1
Dec-14 5.0 6.2
Mar-15 5.0 6.3
Jun-15 5.0 6.3
Sep-15 5.0 6.3
Dec-15 5.0 6.2
Mar-16 5.0 6.3
Jun-16 5.0 6.3
Sep-16 5.0 6.2
Dec-16 5.0 6.1
Mar-17 5.0 6.0
Jun-17 5.0 5.9
Sep-17 5.0 5.8
Dec-17 5.0 5.8
Mar-18 5.0 5.7
Jun-18 5.0 5.7
Sep-18 5.0 5.6
Dec-18 5.0 5.6
Mar-19 5.0 5.5
Jun-19 5.0 5.4
Sep-19 5.0 5.4
Dec-19 5.0 5.3
Mar-20 5.0 5.3
Jun-20 5.0 5.2
Sep-20 5.0 5.1
Dec-20 5.0 5.1
Mar-21 5.0 5.0
Jun-21 5.0 5.0
Sep-21 5.0 5.0
Dec-21 5.0 5.0
Mar-22 5.0 5.0
Jun-22 5.0 5.0
Sep-22 5.0 5.0
Dec-22 5.0 5.0
Mar-23 5.0 5.0
Jun-23 5.0 5.0
Sep-23 5.0 5.0
Dec-23 5.0 5.0
Mar-24 5.0 5.0
Jun-24 5.0 5.0
Sep-24 5.0 5.0
Dec-24 5.0 5.0
Mar-25 5.0 5.0
Jun-25 5.0 5.0
Sep-25 5.0 5.0
Dec-25 5.0 5.0
Mar-26 5.0 5.0
Jun-26 5.0 5.0
Sep-26 5.0 5.0
Dec-26 5.0 5.0
Mar-27 5.0 5.0
Jun-27 5.0 5.0
Sep-27 5.0 5.0
Dec-27 5.0 5.0
Mar-28 5.0 5.0
Jun-28 5.0 5.0
Sep-28 5.0 5.0
Dec-28 5.0 5.0
Mar-29 5.0 5.0
Jun-29 5.0 5.0
Sep-29 5.0 5.0
Dec-29 5.0 5.0
Mar-30 5.0 5.0
Jun-30 5.0 5.0
Sep-30 5.0 5.0
Dec-30 5.0 5.0
Mar-31 5.0 5.0
Jun-31 5.0 5.0
Sep-31 5.0 5.0
Dec-31 5.0 5.0
Mar-32 5.0 5.0
Jun-32 5.0 5.0
Sep-32 5.0 5.0
Dec-32 5.0 5.0
Mar-33 5.0 5.0
Jun-33 5.0 5.0
Sep-33 5.0 5.0
Dec-33 5.0 5.0
Mar-34 5.0 5.0
Jun-34 5.0 5.0
Sep-34 5.0 5.0
Dec-34 5.0 5.0
Mar-35 5.0 5.0
Jun-35 5.0 5.0
Sep-35 5.0 5.0
Dec-35 5.0 5.0
Mar-36 5.0 5.0
Jun-36 5.0 5.0
Sep-36 5.0 5.0
Dec-36 5.0 5.0
Mar-37 5.0 5.0
Jun-37 5.0 5.0
Sep-37 5.0 5.0
Dec-37 5.0 5.0
Mar-38 5.0 5.0
Jun-38 5.0 5.0
Sep-38 5.0 5.0
Dec-38 5.0 5.0
Mar-39 5.0 5.0
Jun-39 5.0 5.0
Sep-39 5.0 5.0
Dec-39 5.0 5.0
Mar-40 5.0 5.0
Jun-40 5.0 5.0
Sep-40 5.0 5.0
Dec-40 5.0 5.0
Mar-41 5.0 5.0
Jun-41 5.0 5.0
Sep-41 5.0 5.0
Dec-41 5.0 5.0
Mar-42 5.0 5.0
Jun-42 5.0 5.0
Sep-42 5.0 5.0
Dec-42 5.0 5.0
Mar-43 5.0 5.0
Jun-43 5.0 5.0
Sep-43 5.0 5.0
Dec-43 5.0 5.0
Mar-44 5.0 5.0
Jun-44 5.0 5.0
Sep-44 5.0 5.0
Dec-44 5.0 5.0
Mar-45 5.0 5.0
Jun-45 5.0 5.0
Sep-45 5.0 5.0
Dec-45 5.0 5.0
Mar-46 5.0 5.0
Jun-46 5.0 5.0
Sep-46 5.0 5.0
Dec-46 5.0 5.0
Mar-47 5.0 5.0
Jun-47 5.0 5.0
Sep-47 5.0 5.0
Dec-47 5.0 5.0
Mar-48 5.0 5.0
Jun-48 5.0 5.0
Sep-48 5.0 5.0
Dec-48 5.0 5.0
Mar-49 5.0 5.0
Jun-49 5.0 5.0
Sep-49 5.0 5.0
Dec-49 5.0 5.0
Mar-50 5.0 5.0
Jun-50 5.0 5.0
Sep-50 5.0 5.0
Dec-50 5.0 5.0
Mar-51 5.0 5.0
Jun-51 5.0 5.0
Sep-51 5.0 5.0
Dec-51 5.0 5.0
Mar-52 5.0 5.0
Jun-52 5.0 5.0
Sep-52 5.0 5.0
Dec-52 5.0 5.0
Mar-53 5.0 5.0
Jun-53 5.0 5.0
Sep-53 5.0 5.0
Dec-53 5.0 5.0
Mar-54 5.0 5.0
Jun-54 5.0 5.0
Sep-54 5.0 5.0
Dec-54 5.0 5.0
Mar-55 5.0 5.0
Jun-55 5.0 5.0

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Chart 1.18 Labour productivity growth

This chart shows labour productivity growth for the period 1980-81 to 2013-14. Productivity growth is shown to have averaged 1.3 per cent in the 1980s, 2.2 per cent in the 1990s and 1.5 per cent in the 2000s.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0.

Data – Chart 1.18 Labour productivity growth
  Productivity growth 1980s average 1990s average 2000s average
1980-81 0.5 1.3    
1981-82 4.3 1.3    
1982-83 0.7 1.3    
1983-84 2.9 1.3    
1984-85 0.3 1.3    
1985-86 1.1 1.3    
1986-87 0.3 1.3    
1987-88 2.3 1.3    
1988-89 -0.4 1.3    
1989-90 0.6 1.3    
1990-91 1.5   2.2  
1991-92 1.8   2.2  
1992-93 4.3   2.2  
1993-94 1.5   2.2  
1994-95 -0.2   2.2  
1995-96 1.8   2.2  
1996-97 3.5   2.2  
1997-98 3.4   2.2  
1998-99 4.0   2.2  
1999-00 0.1   2.2  
2000-01 1.9     1.5
2001-02 3.9     1.5
2002-03 0.5     1.5
2003-04 2.2     1.5
2004-05 0.9     1.5
2005-06 0.7     1.5
2006-07 1.1     1.5
2007-08 0.8     1.5
2008-09 0.4     1.5
2009-10 2.3     1.5
2010-11 -0.5      
2011-12 2.3      
2012-13 3.3      
2013-14 1.4      

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Chart 1.19 Average annual growth of real GDP and real GDP per person

The chart shows growth in the population, real GDP per person and real GDP over the past 40 years and the next 40 years. Population growth is projected to average 1.3 per cent per year over the next 40 years following 1.4 per cent average growth over the past 40 years. Real GDP per person is projected to average 1.5 per cent per year over the next 40 years following 1.7 per cent growth over the past 40 years. Real GDP is projected to average 2.8 per cent per year over the next 40 years following 3.1 per cent average growth over the past 40 years.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.19 Average annual growth of real GDP and real GDP per person
Average annual growth rates Population Real GDP per person Real GDP
Past 40 years 1.4 1.7 3.1
Next 40 years 1.3 1.5 2.8

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Chart 1.20 Population, productivity and participation combine to produce GDP per person

The chart shows the contributions to real GDP per person growth of the share of the population over 15, the participation rate, the unemployment rate, average hours worked and labour productivity over the period 2014-15 to 2054-55. Real GDP growth per capita is shown to average around 1.5 per cent over the period. Labour productivity is the main driver of growth, averaging growth of 1.5 per cent over the projection period.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0, 3105.0.65.001, 6202.0 and Treasury projections.

0

Data – Chart 1.20 Population, productivity and participation combine to produce GDP per person
Financial Year Share of population 15+ Participation rate Unemployment rate Average hours worked Labour productivity Real GDP per person
2014-15 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 1.3 0.8
2015-16 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.8 1.1
2016-17 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.3 1.8
2017-18 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0 1.4 1.8
2018-19 0 0.2 0.2 0 1.5 1.9
2019-20 0 0.2 0.3 0 1.5 2
2020-21 0 0.2 0.3 0 1.5 2
2021-22 0 0.1 0 -0.1 1.5 1.6
2022-23 0 -0.1 0 -0.1 1.5 1.3
2023-24 0 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.3
2024-25 0 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.3
2025-26 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.2
2026-27 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.4
2027-28 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.4
2028-29 0.1 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.4
2029-30 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.4
2030-31 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.4
2031-32 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2032-33 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2033-34 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2034-35 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2035-36 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2036-37 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2037-38 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2038-39 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2039-40 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2040-41 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2041-42 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2042-43 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2043-44 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2044-45 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2045-46 0 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5
2046-47 0 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.4
2047-48 0 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.4
2048-49 0 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.4
2049-50 0 -0.1 0 1.5 1.4
2050-51 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.4
2051-52 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.3
2052-53 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.3
2053-54 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.3
2054-55 0 -0.2 0 0 1.5 1.3

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Chart 1.21 Components of growth in real GDP per person

The chart shows the annual average contribution to the growth of real GDP per person from the share of the population over 15, the participation rate, the unemployment rate, average hours worked and labour productivity over the past 40 years and the next 40 years. Over the next 40 years labour productivity growth of 1.5 per cent is shown to be the key contributor to real GDP per person growth of 1.5 per cent.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0, 6202.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.21 Components of growth in real GDP per person
Percentage points contribution, annual average Share of population 15+ Participation rate Unemployment rate Average hours worked Labour productivity Real GDP per person
Past 40 years 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 1.5 1.7
Next 40 years 0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.5 1.5

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Chart 1.22 Nominal GDP growth projections

The chart shows nominal GDP growth projections over the period 2014-15 to 2054-55, decomposed into growth in output and prices. Nominal GDP is projected to grow at an average of around 5¼ per cent a year over the projection period, unchanged from the 2010 report.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.22 Nominal GDP growth projections
Per cent Real GDP Prices Nominal GDP
1974-75 1.3 16.7 18.0
1975-76 2.6 14.4 17.0
1976-77 3.6 11.8 15.4
1977-78 0.9 8.3 9.2
1978-79 4.1 9.0 13.0
1979-80 3.1 10.3 13.4
1980-81 3.4 9.8 13.2
1981-82 3.3 12.1 15.4
1982-83 -2.2 9.9 7.7
1983-84 4.6 8.2 12.9
1984-85 5.3 4.9 10.1
1985-86 4.1 6.7 10.8
1986-87 2.6 7.2 9.8
1987-88 5.8 7.6 13.4
1988-89 3.9 9.6 13.5
1989-90 3.5 6.3 9.9
1990-91 -0.4 3.1 2.7
1991-92 0.4 1.6 2.0
1992-93 4.0 1.0 5.0
1993-94 4.0 1.1 5.1
1994-95 3.9 2.3 6.2
1995-96 4.0 2.8 6.7
1996-97 3.9 1.3 5.2
1997-98 4.4 1.3 5.8
1998-99 5.0 0.4 5.4
1999-00 3.9 2.7 6.5
2000-01 1.9 4.8 6.7
2001-02 3.9 3.0 6.8
2002-03 3.1 3.2 6.3
2003-04 4.2 3.4 7.6
2004-05 3.2 3.8 7.1
2005-06 3.0 5.2 8.2
2006-07 3.8 5.2 8.9
2007-08 3.7 4.7 8.4
2008-09 1.7 5.0 6.8
2009-10 2.0 1.0 3.0
2010-11 2.3 6.3 8.7
2011-12 3.7 2.0 5.7
2012-13 2.5 -0.3 2.2
2013-14 2.5 1.6 4.0
2014-15 2.4 -0.8 1.6
2015-16 2.9 1.6 4.5
2016-17 3.6 1.6 5.1
2017-18 3.6 1.7 5.2
2018-19 3.6 1.8 5.4
2019-20 3.6 1.9 5.5
2020-21 3.6 2.3 5.9
2021-22 3.1 2.6 5.7
2022-23 2.9 2.6 5.5
2023-24 2.8 2.6 5.4
2024-25 2.8 2.6 5.4
2025-26 2.7 2.7 5.4
2026-27 2.8 2.6 5.4
2027-28 2.8 2.6 5.4
2028-29 2.8 2.6 5.4
2029-30 2.8 2.6 5.4
2030-31 2.8 2.6 5.4
2031-32 2.8 2.6 5.4
2032-33 2.8 2.6 5.4
2033-34 2.8 2.6 5.4
2034-35 2.8 2.6 5.4
2035-36 2.8 2.6 5.4
2036-37 2.8 2.6 5.3
2037-38 2.8 2.6 5.3
2038-39 2.7 2.6 5.3
2039-40 2.7 2.6 5.3
2040-41 2.7 2.6 5.3
2041-42 2.7 2.6 5.2
2042-43 2.6 2.6 5.2
2043-44 2.6 2.6 5.2
2044-45 2.6 2.6 5.2
2045-46 2.6 2.6 5.1
2046-47 2.5 2.6 5.1
2047-48 2.5 2.6 5.1
2048-49 2.5 2.6 5.0
2049-50 2.4 2.6 5.0
2050-51 2.4 2.6 5.0
2051-52 2.4 2.6 5.0
2052-53 2.4 2.6 4.9
2053-54 2.3 2.6 4.9
2054-55 2.3 2.6 4.9

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Chart 1.23 Average annual growth rates for real GDP and GNI projections

This chart shows the average annual growth rate for the last and the next 40 years for real gross domestic product per capita and real gross national income per capita. Real GDP per person is projected to average 1.5 per cent per year over the next 40 years following 1.7 per cent growth over the past 40 years. Real GNI per person is projected to average 1.4 per cent per year over the next 40 years following 1.9 per cent growth over the past 40 years.

Source: ABS cat no. 5206 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.23 Average annual growth rates for real GDP and GNI projections
  Real GDP per person Real GNI per person
Past 40 years 1.7 1.9
Next 40 years 1.5 1.4

[Return to main document]

Chart 1.24 Sources of growth in real national income per person

The chart shows the contributions to real gross national income per person annual average growth of net foreign income, labour utilisation, labour productivity and the terms of trade. Growth in real gross national income per person is expected to slow to average 0.9 per cent over the period 2014-15 to 2024-25. Beyond 2024-25, it is assumed that the terms of trade no longer detract from growth, resulting in a projected improvement in real GNI per person growth to 1.5 per cent over the period 2024-25 to 2054-55.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury projections.

Data – Chart 1.24 Sources of growth in real national income per person
Percentage point contribution, annual average Per capita income growth Labour utilisation Net foreign income Terms of trade Labour productivity Terms of trade
1960s 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0
1970s 1.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.1
1980s 1.7 0.6 -0.2 0.1 1.2 0.1
1990s 2.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 2.1 -0.1
2000 to 2013 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.8
2014 to 2025 0.9 0.1 0.0 -0.4 1.3 -0.4
2025 to 2055 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0

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Chart 1.25 Underlying cash balance and output gap

The chart the underlying cash balance and output gap over the period 1978-79 to 2013-14.

Source: ABS Cat. No. 5206.0 and Treasury

Data – Chart 1.25 Underlying cash balance and output gap
  UCB (% GDP) Output gap
1978-79 -1.8 0.2
1979-80 -1.0 0.0
1980-81 -0.1 0.2
1981-82 0.2 1.0
1982-83 -1.8 -3.2
1983-84 -3.3 -5.2
1984-85 -2.6 -3.2
1985-86 -2.0 -1.8
1986-87 -0.9 -3.5
1987-88 0.4 -1.2
1988-89 1.5 -0.7
1989-90 1.5 0.9
1990-91 -0.1 -1.6
1991-92 -3.0 -4.8
1992-93 -4.1 -4.3
1993-94 -3.9 -3.6
1994-95 -2.9 -2.4
1995-96 -2.1 -2.3
1996-97 -1.1 -2.2
1997-98 0.0 -1.0
1998-99 0.6 0.0
1999-00 2.0 0.4
2000-01 0.8 -0.3
2001-02 -0.1 -0.4
2002-03 0.9 0.2
2003-04 0.9 0.5
2004-05 1.5 0.9
2005-06 1.6 0.8
2006-07 1.6 0.6
2007-08 1.7 1.7
2008-09 -2.1 0.8
2009-10 -4.2 -0.1
2010-11 -3.4 -0.4
2011-12 -2.9 -0.2
2012-13 -1.2 -0.7
2013-14 -3.1 -1.6

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